东航物流20250529

Summary of Eastern Airlines Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics is a pioneer in the mixed ownership reform of civil aviation, with a diversified shareholding structure: Eastern Airlines Group holds 40.5%, Legend Holdings 11.3%, and an employee shareholding platform 6.3% [2][5] - The company’s business includes air express, comprehensive logistics, and ground integrated services, with comprehensive logistics now being the primary revenue source, surpassing air express [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 8% [2][10] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 7% due to aircraft disposal impacts [2][10] - The company has a dividend yield of 5.2%, with a total dividend payout of 1.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing 40% of net profit [10] Business Segments - Air Express: Relies on 15 B777 freighters and passenger aircraft bellyhold resources, covering over 160 countries and regions [2][6] - Comprehensive Logistics: Revenue reached 12.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 37% increase, accounting for 52% of total revenue. The fastest-growing segments are cross-border e-commerce (71% CAGR) and direct-to-origin services [2][16] - Ground Integrated Services: Contributes stable revenue, with a consistent income of over 2.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 11% of total revenue [7] Market Dynamics - The logistics industry is experiencing tight supply and demand, with limited supply of wide-body freighters and double-digit growth in demand [14][15] - Despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policy changes, growth in European and Asia-Pacific markets is expected to compensate for any declines in U.S. routes [12][15] Future Outlook - The company anticipates steady revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 26 billion yuan, 28.1 billion yuan, and 29.6 billion yuan respectively [20] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.4 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan, with a low PE valuation of 8.5 times for 2025 [20] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio between 30% and 50% [11] Valuation - Eastern Airlines Logistics is currently undervalued with a dynamic PE of 8.5 times for 2025, below the industry average of 12 times [3] - The target price is set at 15.2 yuan, with a buy rating based on the company's growth potential and stable dividend returns [20] Additional Insights - The company has a strong market position in Shanghai, with a market share of over 50% at both Pudong and Hongqiao airports [19] - Future plans include the construction of new cargo stations and smart logistics facilities to increase capacity by approximately 300,000 tons [19]