Cliffs(US:CLF)2024-11-05 14:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $124 million on shipments of 3.8 million tons during Q3, impacted by weaker steel demand and pricing [11] - Average selling prices fell by $80 per ton, and shipments decreased by 150,000 tons compared to the prior quarter [12] - Unit costs were reduced by over $40 per ton, exceeding previous guidance [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive segment experienced the lowest build rates since the semiconductor shortage, with only 3.75 million units built in Q3, leading to decreased shipments and margins [11] - The non-automotive business also faced continued weakness in demand and pricing across flat rolled and plate products [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American automotive build expectations for the year were revised down to approximately 15.5 million units, about 1 million less than previous estimates [11] - The company temporarily idled one blast furnace, reducing annual capacity by about 1.5 million net tons, due to reduced order activity [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Stelco is expected to enhance the overall EBITDA margin and improve the cost structure, allowing the company to better serve non-automotive markets [7][10] - The company plans to prioritize debt repayment over share repurchases following the acquisition of Stelco [15] - Strategic projects at Middletown, Butler, and Weirton are progressing well, with Phase 1 funding approvals received [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for a strong 2025, citing factors such as falling interest rates, election certainty, and manufacturing onshoring [20] - The current demand weakness is attributed to high interest rates affecting consumer purchasing decisions [67][70] - Management anticipates a recovery in demand as economic conditions improve and trade protections are potentially strengthened [94] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant cost savings, with quarterly SG&A of $112 million and capital spending of $151 million remaining below historical averages [13] - The company expects to generate $120 million in cost synergies within the first year post-Stelco acquisition [10][103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Q4 volume price and cost expectations - Management anticipates a strong Q1 with volumes returning to normal by the first half of next year, driven by improved customer order activity [25] Question: CapEx guidance for 2025 - The company has reduced CapEx guidance to $600 million for 2025, reflecting lower needs across the footprint and updated estimates for strategic projects [14][36] Question: Cost savings potential heading into Q4 - While significant cost savings were achieved in Q3, similar reductions are not expected in Q4 due to the idling of the Cleveland 6 blast furnace [46] Question: Current contracting cycle and pricing - Pricing for the October contracts is expected to be stable, with some flexibility required to avoid price dumping from foreign competitors [48] Question: Impact of high interest rates on demand - High interest rates are significantly affecting consumer purchasing decisions, leading to reduced demand in both automotive and housing markets [67][70] Question: Synergies from Stelco acquisition - The company is confident in achieving $120 million in synergies within the first year, with potential for higher estimates in future calls [103][106]