Upstart(US:UPST)2025-05-06 21:32Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached approximately $213 million, representing a 67% year-on-year growth [26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $43 million, indicating a significant scaling in operating leverage [29] - GAAP net loss was $2 million, which was better than expectations, reflecting strong performance on net interest income [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with personal loan originations flat sequentially but up 83% year-on-year [5][9] - Home and Auto lending saw sequential growth rates of 5242% and 42% respectively, with auto lending growing almost 5x compared to a year ago [6][13] - HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x year-on-year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year [27] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the prior quarter [27] - The Upstart Macro Index remains elevated but stable, indicating improving consumer financial health [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year, with a focus on expanding both core and newer products [21][33] - Upstart is prioritizing AI advancements, with a goal to enhance its leadership in AI lending and improve risk models [20][24] - The company is diversifying its funding sources, with over 50% of loan funding now in committed partnership agreements [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to changing macroeconomic conditions, noting that credit performance has remained stable despite recent market turbulence [7][31] - The company is cautious about potential risks from reinflation and is planning for a steady macro environment [31] - Guidance for Q2 includes total revenues of approximately $225 million, with expectations for continued strong demand for credit [32] Other Important Information - The company has signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's FinTech, One Pay, to make its products available to Walmart customers [36] - Upstart's HELOC product has expanded its footprint to 37 states plus Washington D.C., covering almost 75% of the U.S. population [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Walmart partnership? - Management confirmed a one-year agreement with Walmart's FinTech, emphasizing the alignment of values in delivering consumer value [36][37] Question: Any trends in April and early May? - Management indicated that guidance captures the current trends, providing limited additional color [39] Question: Thoughts on conversion rates for the remainder of the year? - Management expects conversion rates to improve with better models and automation, aiming to reach around 20% [45] Question: Why is the 2025 outlook not higher despite new funding? - Management clarified that funding is not the gating item for growth; rather, it is the economic acquisition of the right borrowers [102] Question: How are funding partners reacting to market volatility? - Management reported no pullbacks from committed capital partners, indicating resilience in funding sources [70] Question: How is Upstart adapting to macroeconomic changes? - Management emphasized the adaptability of their models and a conservative approach to planning, with no assumptions of Fed rate cuts this year [74]