Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) - Industry: China Internet and Other Services - Current Stock Price: HK$22.10 (as of June 2, 2025) - Price Target: Increased from HK$26.00 to HK$28.00 Key Points Price Target and Valuation - The price target was raised by 8% to HK$28.00 due to updated foreign exchange assumptions, changing from Rmb7.5 to Rmb7.15 per US dollar, aligning with macro forecasts [1][4] - Bull case price target increased to HK$36.00 and bear case to HK$18.00, reflecting the adjustments in the base case [2] Earnings Estimates - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the fiscal years are as follows: - 2025: Rmb1.43 - 2026: Rmb1.66 - 2027: Rmb1.83 [4] Growth Drivers - Anticipated strong travel demand in China for 2025 as consumers shift spending from shopping to travel and experiences [13] - Market share growth expected from lower-tier cities, cross-selling initiatives, new business ventures, and international expansion [13] - Revenue growth projected at over 25% and non-IFRS EPS growth at over 10% for 2024-2026 [13] Financial Metrics - Transportation Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) estimates: - 2025: Rmb218.68 billion - 2026: Rmb244.92 billion - 2027: Rmb269.90 billion [20] - Accommodation GMV estimates: - 2025: Rmb5.42 billion - 2026: Rmb6.14 billion - 2027: Rmb6.83 billion [20] Risk Factors - Risks to price target include potential weaker-than-expected domestic business due to macroeconomic conditions in China, which could affect price-sensitive users in lower-tier cities [26] - Competition in lower-tier cities may intensify, impacting margins and requiring lower subsidies [21][26] Analyst Ratings - Stock rating remains "Overweight" with an attractive industry view [4][15] - Consensus rating distribution shows 91% Overweight and 9% Equal-weight [15] Market Context - The report indicates a WACC of 11.5% for Tongcheng, slightly higher than its peers due to its smaller size, with a terminal growth rate aligned with long-term GDP growth targets [9] Conclusion - Tongcheng Travel Holdings is positioned for growth in the travel sector, with a revised price target reflecting positive macroeconomic assumptions and strong demand trends. However, potential risks from competition and economic conditions in China warrant close monitoring.
风险收益更新_同程旅行控股