潮宏基20250609

Summary of the Conference Call for Chao Hong Ji Company Overview - Company: Chao Hong Ji - Industry: Gold and Jewelry Key Points and Arguments Performance and Strategy - Chao Hong Ji improved customer traffic and shopping conversion rates through product structure adjustments and channel optimization, outperforming industry averages, especially in Q1 of this year [2][4] - The number of direct-operated stores decreased to approximately 240, but single-store revenue increased significantly, directly enhancing profit performance [2][5] - The company shifted its product focus from 18K gold to gold jewelry, which, despite lower gross margins, has led to stable revenue growth as the income structure stabilizes [2][6] - The expansion of the franchise model has also improved gross margins, with a notable increase in franchise revenue share in Q1 [2][6] Market Dynamics - The overall gold jewelry industry is experiencing a downturn, with high gold prices and declining wedding demand leading to reduced consumption [2][9] - Chao Hong Ji successfully differentiated itself with its traditional gold products, while competitors like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are closing stores, providing opportunities for Chao Hong Ji to open new locations [2][9] Future Outlook - The company has an optimistic performance outlook, with expectations for terminal GMV to reach 9.5 million, corresponding to reported revenue of 3.5 million [2][3][10] - The asset structure is rapidly improving, with over 70% of the asset proportion being fixed-price assets, which is expected to reflect positively in the upcoming financial reports [10] - The investment return cycle for Chao Hong Ji is approximately 4 years, significantly shorter than the over 6 years for competitors, making it attractive for franchisees [4][12] International Expansion - Chao Hong Ji plans to open 200 to 300 stores in Southeast Asia and Asia, targeting regions with strong gold jewelry consumption habits, which could contribute approximately 600 to 800 million in revenue [15] - The company is set to open a store in Singapore in June, with positive sales expectations from previously opened stores in Thailand [13][14] Financial Projections - Domestic growth is primarily driven by franchise competition, with projected earnings of approximately 750 million by 2027, plus an additional 120 million from overseas operations, totaling around 800 to 900 million [16] - The current market valuation of around 12 billion is considered to be at an absolute bottom, with significant upward potential based on short-term performance and mid-term international expansion [16] Additional Important Insights - Chao Hong Ji's ability to adapt quickly to market changes through a robust digital system and strong control over franchisees has been a key factor in its superior performance compared to peers [2][7] - The company has effectively reduced opening costs compared to traditional brands by lowering initial inventory requirements for franchisees, allowing for better responsiveness to consumer preferences [11]