Upstart (UPST) 2025 Conference Transcript

Upstart (UPST) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - Upstart is a consumer credit platform that connects borrowers needing credit with funding sources seeking yield, focusing on risk modeling and underwriting technology [5][6] Core Business Insights - Upstart aims to improve approval rates and reduce annual percentage rates (APRs) by applying modern technology to credit prediction models, addressing the inefficiencies in traditional consumer credit markets [6][17] - The company has achieved a high level of automation, reaching 92% for unsecured loans, which enhances its ability to serve various borrower segments, particularly in the prime and super-prime markets [34][35] Recent Market Conditions - The macro environment has seen fluctuating default rates, with a peak of approximately 1.6 (60% worse than pre-COVID levels) in 2023, stabilizing to around 1.4-1.5 in 2025 [11][12][18] - Origination levels declined significantly during the rise in default rates but have recently begun to recover as the environment stabilizes [14][17] Growth and Delinquency Trends - Upstart's growth model is unique; it focuses on improving underwriting over time, which allows for better risk management and lower default subsidies, leading to reduced APRs and increased acceptance rates [15][16] - The company is guiding for growth in origination volumes for the remainder of the year, assuming the macro environment remains stable [18] Funding Environment - Upstart has worked to secure more resilient funding sources, adapting to market volatility by establishing partnerships with more stable counterparties [27][28] - The company has implemented structures designed to withstand economic cycles, enhancing its funding predictability [26][27] Technology and Model Differentiation - Upstart's models are designed to be reactive rather than predictive, allowing for quick adjustments to macroeconomic changes based on real-time borrower data [29][30] - The company emphasizes the importance of fraud modeling to reduce friction in the loan process while maintaining risk management [36][37] Market Segmentation and Strategy - Upstart has shifted its focus towards the prime borrower segment, with March originations up 125% year-over-year, now constituting 32% of overall originations [55][58] - The company aims for a balanced mix of borrowers, reflecting the broader population demographics [59] Regulatory Environment and Community Banks - The current regulatory landscape has led banks to pull back as direct lenders, which may impact Upstart's operations and partnerships [66][67] - There is a discussion on whether banks should transition to being financiers rather than direct lenders to adapt to the evolving market [67] Future Opportunities - Upstart is exploring opportunities in revolving credit and purchase mortgages to build more engaged customer relationships [69][70] - The company is aware of the potential risks associated with student loan debt among its borrower base, with 35% of borrowers having such debt, but has not seen significant performance issues yet [74][75] Conclusion - Upstart is positioned to leverage its technology and market insights to navigate the current economic landscape, focusing on improving underwriting models and expanding into new credit segments while managing risks associated with macroeconomic changes [88][89]