Siemens(US:SIEGY)2025-07-23 02:42Summary of Key Points from the Multi-Industry Capex Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-industry capital expenditure (capex) trends, analyzing approximately €3.1 trillion of capex across around 4,000 companies in 26 different end markets [1][7][43]. Core Insights - Medium-term Capex Growth: The medium-term capex growth has been revised upward slightly, now indicating a 5.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2024-2028, which is a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous update in April [7][13]. - 2025 Capex Downgrade: For 2025, the capex growth expectation has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9%, attributed to some spending being deferred to 2026 due to tariff and policy uncertainties [7][8][13]. - Sector Performance: - Strong Growth Areas: Technology (specifically Datacenters) and Utilities (Power grids, Renewables) are expected to see favorable capex environments, with companies like Legrand, Schneider, Siemens, Prysmian, and Nexans recommended for investment [7][26]. - Weak Growth Areas: Sectors such as Biotech, Pulp & Paper, and REITs are experiencing the largest cuts in capex growth [7][8]. Additional Insights - Geographical Drivers: The US remains the primary driver of strength in the capex tracker, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and interest rates. Europe is also expected to see strong investments in grid and defense [8][9]. - Capacity Utilization: Capacity utilization is below historical median levels in Europe but aligns with historical medians in the US and China. Elevated asset age in sectors like Oil & Gas, Vehicles, Airlines, and Healthcare indicates a need for replacement capex [8][9][21]. - Macro Risks: Key risks to the capex estimates for 2025 include tariff-driven inflation, structural overcapacity in China, and competitiveness issues for core capex spenders in Europe [9][10]. Sector-Specific Capex Growth Projections - Datacenters: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.0% for 2024-2028, with a 36.5% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - Renewables and Transmission: Projected CAGR of 16.3% for 2024-2028, with 25.5% growth in 2025 [20]. - Semiconductors: Anticipated CAGR of 12.9% for 2024-2028, with 11.2% growth in 2025 [20]. - Biotech: Expected to decline with a CAGR of -8.1% for 2024-2028, and a -10.7% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. Conclusion - The capex tracker indicates a mixed outlook for various sectors, with technology and utilities poised for growth while others like biotech and pulp & paper face challenges. The overall capex environment remains healthy, but macroeconomic uncertainties could impact future investments [7][9][10].