宏观周报 2025 年 07 月 13 日 整治企业内卷式竞争 宏观研究团队 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  国内宏观政策：整治企业内卷式竞争 | | 过去两周（6 月 29 日-7 月 12 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，近日中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，会议研究纵深推进全国统 一大市场建设、整治企业"内卷式"竞争、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。国家主 席习近平强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理 企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。习近平在 山西考察时强调，推动煤炭产业由低端向高端、煤炭产品由初级燃料向高价值产 品攀升；要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。国务院印发《关于进一步加 大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》，通知提出将从扩大稳岗专项贷款、提高失业保 险返还比例等多个方面推动经济发展。 基建与产业方 ...

Core Insights - The near-term outlook for the Zacks Industrial Services industry is positive, driven by increasing e-commerce activity and a recent rise in the production index [1][5] - Companies like Siemens, MSC Industrial Direct, and Eos Energy Enterprises are strategically positioned to leverage these trends through cost-cutting, operational efficiency improvements, and investments in automation and digitization [2] Industry Overview - The Zacks Industrial Services industry includes companies providing industrial equipment products and MRO services, serving diverse sectors such as commercial, government, healthcare, and manufacturing [3] - The industry focuses on reducing MRO supply-chain costs and enhancing productivity through inventory management and procurement solutions [3] Trends Impacting the Industry - E-commerce is expected to drive growth, with global e-commerce revenues projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2024 to 2030, and the U.S. market at a CAGR of 16.4% [4] - The manufacturing sector, contributing around 70% to the industry's revenues, has shown signs of recovery with the production index entering expansion territory at 50.3% in June, up from 45.4% in May [5] Cost Management Strategies - The industry faces significant inflation, including rising labor, freight, and fuel costs, prompting companies to implement pricing actions, cost-cutting measures, and productivity improvements [6] Market Performance - The Zacks Industrial Services industry has outperformed both its sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, growing 16.5% compared to the sector's 14.8% and the S&P 500's 11.2% [9] - The industry currently trades at a forward 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 30.7X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 13.89X and the Industrial Products sector's 19.94X [12] Company Highlights - Siemens reported a 10% increase in orders and a 7% rise in revenues in Q2, bolstered by acquisitions that enhance its capabilities in industrial AI and simulation [18][19] - Eos Energy Enterprises secured a $22.7 million loan advance to support its production expansion, with projected revenues for 2025 between $150 million and $190 million, up from $15.7 million in 2024 [21][22] - MSC Industrial noted positive trends in its fiscal third quarter, focusing on long-term growth objectives and recent acquisitions to enhance its market position [25]

Siemens AG (SIEGY) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.Since a changing earning ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment potential in Asian equities, particularly those listed in US markets, which are often overlooked and under-allocated in investor portfolios [1]. Group 1: Investment Themes - The focus is on companies like Hitachi and Mitsubishi Corp, which are seen as beneficiaries of global energy transition and digital transformation trends [1]. - The analysis employs a fundamental bottom-up approach with a macroeconomic overlay to identify stocks poised to benefit from broader global trends [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a decade of experience as a buy-side equity analyst covering Asia Pacific equities, with a focus on Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors [1]. - The intention behind writing on Seeking Alpha is to share insights and expand the investment universe for readers interested in Asian equities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The sale of ebm-papst's Industrial Drive Technology (IDT) division to Siemens has been officially completed, with the business to be marketed under the name "Mechatronic Systems" [1] Group 1 - The transaction was first announced in March 2024 and has now reached completion [1] - The product portfolio under the new division will include ultra-low voltage intelligent integrated mechatronic systems [1]

基于前期的良好合作基础，双方将在数字规划咨询、电气化、自动化、数字化和低碳化解决方案等领域建立长期合作关系。双方将进一步整合优势资源，以数字化和低碳化的"双轮驱动"，产业链 截至目前，五粮液与西门子已共同推进了数智化赋能生态酿酒、制曲与包装升级、环保设施完善等项目，取得显著成效。此次借助"和美全球行"德国站活动契机，五粮液深化与西门子公司合作 从产品输出到文化输出，从贸易往来到达成价值交融，五粮液正用"一瓶酒"的温度，让不同文化在碰撞中酿出新的芬芳。2025年，五粮液"和美全球行"进一步升级，通过强化文化赋能、激活营 接下来，五粮液还将通过"和美全球行"德国站和塞舌尔站活动，深化产业合作、打造沉浸式消费体验、拓展创新服务场景等多维举措，精心推出系列品牌活动，用"和合共生 美美与共"的理念增 【免责声明】【广告】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作 慕尼黑时间7月4日下午，在五粮液"和美全球行"德国站活动期间，五粮液集团（股份）公司董事长曾从钦率队走进西门子研发中心和西门子股份公司总部开展调研交流， ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Wuliangye Group and Siemens marks a significant step towards enhancing the "Digital Wuliangye" initiative, focusing on digital transformation and sustainable practices [1][6]. Group 1: Partnership Development - Wuliangye Group's chairman led a delegation to Siemens' R&D center and headquarters, resulting in a consensus to deepen cooperation [1][6]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Wuliangye and Siemens (China) to establish a long-term partnership in areas such as digital planning, electrification, automation, and low-carbon solutions [6]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The delegation explored Siemens' advancements in artificial intelligence, sustainable energy, and cybersecurity, gaining insights into digital twin technology, flexible manufacturing, and AI applications [5][6]. - Both companies discussed the integration of digitalization and low-carbon initiatives to enhance their collaboration and drive industry leadership in automation and digital transformation [6]. Group 3: Cultural and Market Expansion - Wuliangye aims to elevate its global presence through the "He Mei Global Tour," enhancing cultural engagement and marketing strategies to integrate traditional Chinese liquor culture into global consumer experiences [8]. - Future initiatives will focus on deepening industry cooperation, creating immersive consumer experiences, and expanding innovative service scenarios to strengthen the global liquor supply chain [8].

Group 1 - Seven German Fortune 500 companies, including BMW, Allianz, Siemens, and Linde Gas, participated in the China (Sichuan) - Bavaria Economic and Cultural Cooperation Exchange Conference held in Munich, Germany [1] - A total of 33 signed projects were reached, with a cumulative amount exceeding 9.082 billion yuan, including six key projects signed on-site [1][2] - The signed projects cover various fields such as goods trade, service trade, industrial investment, cultural tourism, and traditional Chinese medicine [1][2] Group 2 - The Chengdu High-tech Zone Management Committee signed an industrial gas investment cooperation agreement with Germany's Messer Group, which will provide purification and supply equipment for BOE's production line, supporting the development of Sichuan's electronic information industry [2] - Sichuan Runzhao Food Co., Ltd. reached a cooperation agreement with Germany's N25 Caviar Trading Company to promote Sichuan Runzhao's caviar products in high-end consumption scenarios in Europe, leveraging N25's established sales network [2] - In the first five months of this year, the trade import and export volume between Sichuan and Germany reached 10.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1%, making Germany an important trade partner and investment source for Sichuan in the EU [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent lifting of the EDA export ban by the U.S. government is a significant development for the Chinese semiconductor industry, allowing access to advanced EDA technologies and potentially accelerating chip design capabilities and high-end chip development [6][24]. Group 1: EDA Export Ban and Its Lifting - The U.S. government lifted the export ban on EDA software for Chinese companies, with Siemens, Synopsys, and Cadence resuming their services [6][7]. - The original ban was imposed on May 29, 2025, targeting EDA tools related to AI chip development and entities on the entity list [8]. - U.S. companies dominate the global EDA market, holding a combined market share of 74% as of 2024, with over 80% in the Chinese EDA market [9]. Group 2: Importance of EDA - EDA, or Electronic Design Automation, is crucial for chip design, encompassing tools for design, layout, and verification, significantly impacting the success rate and cost of chip production [13][14]. - The complexity and high costs associated with chip design necessitate the use of EDA tools to minimize errors and reduce losses [13][14]. Group 3: Challenges for Domestic EDA - Domestic EDA companies face significant challenges, including a lack of comprehensive EDA toolchains and a gap in advanced process support, particularly for nodes below 3nm [21]. - The Chinese EDA industry has historically been slow to develop due to limited investment and reliance on foreign technologies [16][17]. Group 4: Future Implications of the Ban Lifting - The lifting of the EDA export ban may lead to a rapid resumption of collaboration between Chinese semiconductor firms and international EDA giants, potentially accelerating high-end chip design projects [25]. - However, there is a risk that increased reliance on imported EDA tools could weaken the motivation to develop domestic alternatives [25][26]. - To achieve true technological independence, the Chinese semiconductor industry must prioritize the development and adoption of domestic EDA solutions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reversal of the U.S. export control policy on EDA (Electronic Design Automation) companies has significant implications for the semiconductor industry in China, highlighting the urgent need for domestic alternatives in core technology areas [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On July 3, 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce notified major EDA suppliers—Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens—that the previous requirement for government licenses for their operations in China has been lifted, allowing them to fully restore services to Chinese clients [2][3]. - The initial export restrictions imposed in May 2023 required these companies to apply for licenses to export specific EDA tools to China, which could have severely impacted both the companies and the domestic semiconductor industry [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The three major EDA companies dominate the global market, holding over 70% of the global EDA market share and exceeding 80% in the Chinese market [3]. - The recent export ban and its subsequent lifting have underscored the vulnerability of Chinese chip design firms to supply chain disruptions, as they rely heavily on these international EDA tools [4][5]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Response - The need for domestic EDA solutions has been amplified by the recent events, with experts suggesting that the Chinese semiconductor industry must support local EDA companies while also encouraging the adoption of domestic alternatives through policy measures [1][5]. - Domestic EDA companies, such as Huada Empyrean, GigaDevice, and Gexin Electronics, are currently small players in a market dominated by international giants, indicating a significant gap in technology and product offerings [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term development of domestic EDA capabilities is essential, as the current reliance on international tools poses a substantial risk to the Chinese semiconductor supply chain [4][6]. - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a strategy for domestic EDA firms to strengthen their market position and enhance technological capabilities, with several companies actively pursuing such opportunities [6][7].