ASML Holding(US:ASML)2025-07-24 05:04Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the semiconductor industry, focusing on ASML and its recent performance, as well as implications for US semiconductor equipment (SPE) suppliers. Core Insights and Arguments 1. ASML's Backlog Reduction: ASML has removed approximately €1.4 billion from its backlog, attributed to order cancellations from new Chinese customers added to the US Entity List in late 2024. This suggests that the impact of US export controls is now being felt by ASML's customers [2][2][2]. 2. 2026 Revenue Outlook: Despite uncertainties due to tariffs and potential demand destruction in PCs and smartphones, ASML's revenue from domestic China wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) is expected to grow nearly 10% year-over-year to around $35 billion in 2026 [2][2][2]. 3. Comparison with Global Peers: ASML is projected to underperform compared to global SPE peers in 2026, primarily due to a lack of EUV layer increases for the N2 node, which may lead to other technologies capturing market share [2][2][2]. 4. Intel's Capex Cuts: There are indications that Intel (INTC) may signal significant cuts in capital expenditures, which could pose a headwind for ASML and other US SPE suppliers [2][2][2]. 5. US Export Controls: The Trump Administration is reportedly considering reversing some export bans on semiconductor shipments to China, which could lead to increased shipments of SPE to China as part of a broader trade agreement [3][3][3]. Additional Important Information 1. Investor Sentiment: Following ASML's results, there has been a notable decline in its stock price, reflecting investor concerns over the implications of the backlog reduction and future revenue growth [2][2][2]. 2. Cautious Stance from US SPE Suppliers: Companies like AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX have adopted a cautious outlook regarding Intel's capital expenditures for 2026, indicating a broader concern within the industry about future demand [2][2][2]. 3. Potential for Increased Shipments: The discussions suggest a potential shift in US policy that may allow for increased shipments of semiconductor equipment to China, which could alleviate some investor fears regarding the semiconductor supply chain [3][3][3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on ASML and its interactions with US export policies and market dynamics.