Deutsche Bank AG(DB) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues grew 6% year on year to €16.3 billion in the first half, aligning with the full year target of around €32 billion [4][5] - Non-interest expenses declined 15% year on year to €10.2 billion, resulting in a cost-income ratio of 62% [5] - Return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 11% in the first half, meeting the target of greater than 10% [5][18] - The CET1 ratio stood at 14.2%, allowing for capital deployment to grow the business and support clients [5][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All four business lines delivered double-digit returns in the first half, with a diversified business mix contributing to performance [7] - The Corporate Bank maintained a leading market position in Germany, with expectations for revenue momentum to pick up due to government investments [8] - The Investment Bank focused on consolidating its position in the European FICC franchise, with origination and advisory aiming to grow market share [9] - The Private Bank showed progress in transformation, with personal banking driving efficiency through workforce reductions and digitalization [10] - Asset Management reported diversified assets under management exceeding €1 trillion, positioning it well for both German and global investors [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Corporate Bank's revenues were flat in Q2, impacted by adverse FX movements but offset by interest hedging gains [30] - The Investment Bank's revenues increased 3% year on year, driven by strong FICC performance, while origination and advisory faced challenges [32] - The Private Bank recorded a 10% operating leverage and a 56% increase in profit before tax, with net interest income growing by 5% year on year [34] - Asset Management saw a 9% increase in revenues, driven by higher management fees and positive net inflows [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering year-end targets while preparing for the next phase of strategy to boost returns beyond 2025 [5][14] - The "Made for Germany" initiative aims to prioritize growth and competitiveness, with expectations for significant investments in the German economy [14][15] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong capital position and plans to return excess capital to shareholders when sustainably exceeding a 14% CET1 ratio [41][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the €32 billion revenue target, citing strong performance in fixed income and a robust financing pipeline [49][51] - The German fiscal stimulus is expected to have a more significant impact in 2026, with positive sentiment changes observed among corporate clients [55][56] - The company anticipates a reduction in provisioning levels in the second half of the year, despite ongoing pressures in commercial real estate [41] Other Important Information - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% since 2021, within the target range of 5.5% to 6.5% [11] - Capital efficiencies reached a cumulative total of €30 billion, contributing to a strong CET1 ratio [11] - The company is focused on operational efficiency measures to offset business investments and inflation [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue outlook and distribution policy - Concerns were raised about achieving the €32 billion revenue target, with management confident due to strong performance in fixed income and delayed transactions moving into H2 [45][49] - Clarification was provided that the payout ratio of 50% is flexible, with excess capital distribution considered if the CET1 ratio exceeds 14% [47][62] Question: Output floor and CLP outlook - Management indicated confidence in mitigating the output floor impact, with a potential reduction to zero [66][68] - Guidance for credit loss provisions was discussed, with expectations for H2 provisions to be lower than H1, particularly due to pressures in commercial real estate [71] Question: Stress test implications and cost run rate - Management reassured that stress test results would not impact capital distributions, focusing instead on drawdown metrics [74][81] - The adjusted cost run rate for the second half was confirmed to be around €5 billion, aligning with previous guidance [75][80]