HONGLU(SZ:002541)2025-07-28 01:42Summary of Conference Call on the Construction Industry Industry Overview - The construction industry has initiated an anti-involution campaign, with responses from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), national enterprises, and private enterprises aimed at avoiding unfair competition such as bid-rigging and lowest-bid wins, which is expected to improve the industry ecosystem [1][2] - Major infrastructure projects like the Yalong River Hydropower Station, with an investment scale of 1.2 trillion yuan, are anticipated to become new growth points for infrastructure demand, alongside projects like the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal and the Pinglu Canal [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The construction industry is currently at the bottom of the chip, stock price, and supply-demand structure, with a strong push for steel structure buildings expected to increase penetration rates, shifting market expectations from pessimistic to optimistic [1][3] - Historical data indicates that supply-side contraction can lead to economic improvement, and reducing vicious competition can enhance corporate profit levels; policy support and improved market conditions are crucial for the sustainable development of the construction industry [1][4][5] - The construction industry does not have fixed capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments based on demand changes, which differentiates it from other cyclical industries like cement and steel [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on Honglu Steel Structure, which is expected to benefit from rising steel prices, leading to a dual boost in valuation and performance; it has greater earnings elasticity compared to traditional SOEs [1][6] - Attention should also be given to undervalued SOEs such as China Power Construction and China Energy Construction, which may see valuation recovery as competition improves [9] - Other recommended stocks include high-dividend SOEs like China State Construction and Sichuan Road & Bridge, which are expected to improve operational quality [9] Marginal Changes and Policy Catalysts - The construction industry is experiencing its first revenue decline in 2024 due to severe internal competition, with leading firms reporting economic profits of only 1-2% [2] - The anti-involution measures, including avoiding bid-rigging and illegal subcontracting, are expected to bring about significant industry changes [2] Future Development Conditions - The sustainable development of the construction industry relies on continued policy support and market environment improvements, including the promotion of large-scale infrastructure projects [5] - Reducing vicious competition and enhancing corporate profitability are essential for future growth [5] Potential Risks and Opportunities - The steel structure industry may see similar opportunities as the steel sector experiences price increases due to potential joint production cuts and rising demand expectations [8] - Companies like Zhongcai International and Zhonggong International, which serve downstream cement and steel plants, may face short-term challenges due to reduced capital expenditures but could benefit from improved cash flow conditions in the long run [9]