中国光伏与 “反内卷”-China Solar and “Anti-Involution”

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the China Solar Industry and the concept of "Anti-Involution" which refers to the pushback against destructive competition and supply-side reforms [2][3]. Core Insights 1. Investor Sentiment Shift: There is a notable shift in investor sentiment towards the solar sector, with long-only investors (LO) making up nearly half of the discussions, contrasting with previous dominance by hedge funds (HF) [2][3]. 2. Overcapacity Concerns: Most investors do not foresee immediate solutions to the overcapacity issues plaguing the solar sector, leading to expectations of profit-taking following any policy disappointments [2][4]. 3. Government Intervention: Top government officials have expressed concerns regarding overcapacity, indicating that various proposals and measures may be explored, although drastic policy interventions are not anticipated in the near term [4][6]. 4. Consolidation Discussions: The establishment of a consolidation fund by polysilicon manufacturers is a frequently discussed potential solution, but many investors are skeptical about government funding and the feasibility of such plans [4][5]. 5. Market Participation: Current investor participation is low, with some hedge funds considering short positions if no new policies are announced by the end of July [5]. Stock Recommendations 1. Daqo New Energy: Daqo is highlighted as offering the best risk/reward profile within the solar sector, trading at 0.4x FY25E P/BV with net cash exceeding its market cap. This positions Daqo favorably in scenarios of either drastic policy changes or prolonged industry consolidation [11]. 2. Other Renewable Names: Investors view Goldwind and Orient Cables as fundamentally strong, but weak second-quarter results may present entry points. Yangtze Power is considered a defensive investment, while Longyuan has received a favorable valuation call [12]. Additional Insights - Range-Bound Trading Expectation: There is a shift from expectations of continual de-rating to a more stable, range-bound trading outlook for the sector [10]. - Historical Context: Daqo's historical trading at 0.8x P/BV compared to its current valuation of 0.3x indicates significant market adjustments, with a negative enterprise value reported in Q1 2025 [11]. Conclusion The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China solar industry, highlighting investor sentiment shifts, ongoing concerns about overcapacity, and specific stock recommendations, particularly for Daqo New Energy. The discussions reflect a cautious optimism tempered by the realities of market conditions and government policy uncertainties.