Summary of the Conference Call on Supply Chain Reorientation Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Technology sector, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, analyzing the ongoing supply chain reorientation in the context of a Multipolar World [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - Supply Chain Shift: The supply chain dynamics have been tracked since 2018, primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China. The report outlines two phases of shifts: - Phase I (2019-2022): Known as "China + 1", where hardware ODMs and EMS companies began relocating production outside of China to mitigate tariff impacts [11]. - Phase II (2022-2025): Companies are establishing regional production bases globally to cater to local demand, influenced by rising labor costs in China and regulatory crackdowns [12]. - Decline in Reliance on China: The reliance on China for key technology products has decreased significantly. In 2018, China accounted for 88% of US tech imports (~US$100 billion), but by 2024, this figure dropped to 74% (~US$108 billion), with imports from other Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand increasing [13][44]. - Future Capacity Needs: - Notebooks: Sufficient capacity outside China to meet US demand by the end of 2025 [14]. - iPhones: More capacity is needed outside China to meet US demand, with only 10-15% produced outside China as of 2024 [14]. - Servers: Majority of servers for the US market are assembled in North America, compliant with USMCA [14]. - Onshoring Production: The report discusses the feasibility of onshoring production to the US, suggesting it is only viable for low-volume, high-value products due to high labor costs and the lack of a complete supply chain ecosystem in the US [16][17]. - China's Response: China is adapting by focusing on high-margin R&D and manufacturing, as well as enhancing its branding and after-sales services. The country is also increasing its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities to achieve self-sufficiency [18][20]. Additional Important Points - Company Profiles: The report includes profiles of 10 manufacturing companies (e.g., Wistron, Foxconn) and 5 global brands (e.g., Apple, Dell) detailing their revenue exposure and supply chain dynamics [9][23]. - Trade Observations: Insights on global trade flows and US imports for key tech products, including notebooks, smartphones, and servers, are provided [9][91][95]. - Tariff Implications: The report highlights the impact of tariffs on supply chain decisions, particularly under the current political climate [15][20]. Conclusion - The ongoing supply chain reorientation is a complex and evolving process influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic factors, and strategic corporate decisions. The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to these changes to remain competitive in the global market [1][3][36].
全球科技 亚太地区供应链重构Global Technology Asia Pacific