Summary of Laopu Gold (6181.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - Industry: Cosmetics & Jewelry - Market Cap: HK$132.0 billion / $16.8 billion - Enterprise Value: HK$133.5 billion / $17.0 billion - Current Price: HK$764.50 - Target Price: HK$1,090.00 - Upside Potential: 42.6% [1][3] Key Financial Highlights - 1H25 Profit Alert: - Net Income (NI) expected between RMB2,230-2,280 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 279-288% [1] - Mid-point NI at RMB2,255 million, aligning with Goldman Sachs estimate (GSe) of RMB2,259 million [1] - Sales projected at RMB12-12.5 billion, up 241-255% year-over-year, but 4-7% lower than GSe [1] - Net Profit Margin (NPM) expected at 18.2-18.6%, above GSe of 17.4% [1] - Adjusted NI (excluding share-based payments) between RMB2,300-2,360 million, indicating 282-292% growth year-over-year [1] Growth Drivers - Core Growth Drivers: The company identified three core drivers for growth: brand, product, and channels. However, channel contributions were not significant in 1H25, with new store expansion and optimization expected to support revenue in 2H25 [2] - Sales Growth: The lower-than-expected sales in 1H25 are attributed to fewer new store openings, with more expected in 2H25 [3] Adjustments and Forecasts - Earnings Adjustments: Goldman Sachs adjusted its 2025E NI by 1% to RMB4.8 billion, reflecting better NPM, while maintaining the full-year sales estimate of RMB27 billion [3] - Future Projections: - Revenue forecasts for 2025E at RMB27,121.8 million, with EBITDA at RMB6,643.8 million [5] - EPS for 2025E projected at RMB28.12 [5] Strategic Focus Areas - Key Focus for 1H25 Results: - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) management, including price hikes and product mix upgrades [19] - Acceleration of store optimization for better locations and larger sizes [19] - Launch of high-ticket size SKUs for both ornaments and jewelry [19] - Overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in Singapore [19] Risks and Considerations - Price Target Risks: - Potential gold price fluctuations - Regulatory challenges in luxury consumption - Regional concentration risks - Overhang of IPO shares post lock-up expiry [22] Conclusion - Laopu Gold is positioned for significant growth with a strong profit outlook for 1H25, driven by improved margins and strategic store expansions. The company’s focus on optimizing its sales channels and exploring overseas markets presents additional upside potential. The current market conditions and strategic initiatives suggest a favorable risk-reward scenario for investors.
老铺黄金：盈利预警 -2025 年上半年净利润因利润率改善抵消延迟销售影响；利润率重置后风险收益更优-Laopu Gold (6181.HK)_ Profit alert_ 1H25 NI in line with better margin offset by backloaded sales; Better risk-reward post margin reset