信号、流动与关键数据_关键跨资产监测、数据、动向及模型的每周总结，追踪情绪、资金流动及持仓情况-Signals, Flows & Key Data_ A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global financial markets, particularly equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Equity Market Forecasts: - S&P 500 is projected to have a base case return of 3.0% with a bear case of -22.1% and a bull case of 13.9% for Q2 2026 [2][2][2]. - MSCI Europe shows a similar trend with a base case return of 5.5% and a bear case of -23.6% [2][2][2]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) are forecasted to have a bear case return of -28.3% and a base case of -2.0% [2][2][2]. 2. Fixed Income Insights: - UST 10-year yields are expected to return 12.4% in the base case, with a bear case of 8.0% [2][2][2]. - The report indicates a significant increase in US capital goods, reaching their highest FPE levels since 2020 [6][6][6]. 3. Currency Forecasts: - The JPY/USD is projected to strengthen to 130 in the bull case, while the EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.25 [2][2][2]. - The GBP/USD is forecasted to rise to 1.45 in the bull case [2][2][2]. 4. Commodities Outlook: - Brent crude oil is expected to have a bear case return of -24.4% with a base case of -9.3% [2][2][2]. - Gold is projected to return 0.9% in the base case, with a bull case of 21.1% [2][2][2]. 5. Market Sentiment: - The Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflects a negative sentiment, indicating market stress [57][57][57]. - The report highlights that the US equity risk premium remains negative, suggesting a cautious outlook for equities [9][9][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. ETF Flows: - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, indicating a comprehensive analysis of market sentiment and positioning [20][20][20]. 2. Cross-Asset Correlations: - The current correlation index stands at 43%, with equity correlations at 73%, indicating a strong relationship among equity assets [73][73][73]. 3. Positioning Summary: - In US equities, asset managers hold a net long position of 29%, while hedge funds are net short by 10% [65][65][65]. - In commodities, gold shows a net long position of 32% among asset managers [65][65][65]. 4. Valuation Framework: - The COVA scorecard identifies good portfolio diversifiers, emphasizing assets with negative correlations to equities and attractive valuations [79][79][79]. 5. Market Movements: - Japan's 2-year yields experienced a significant move higher, indicating volatility in the fixed income market [6][6][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research.