Summary of Ming Yuan Cloud (0909.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Ming Yuan Cloud (0909.HK) - Industry: Real Estate Software in China Key Financial Highlights - 1H25 Profit Alert: Expected net profit between Rmb12.09 million to Rmb15.41 million, significantly better than previous estimates of Rmb141 million net loss and Rmb85 million loss consensus [1][6] - Cost Control: The positive profit is attributed to better-than-expected cost control measures [1] Forecast Changes - Revenue Forecast: 2025-27E revenue forecast remains largely unchanged [2] - Adjusted Net Profit: Increased by 107%/57%/46% for 2025-27E to reflect the above-expectation net profit [2] - 2025E Expectations: Anticipated flat revenue with adjusted net profit of Rmb117 million [2] Valuation and Price Target - Target Price: Raised to HK$2.25 from HK$2.00 based on DCF valuation methodology [2] - Current Price: HK$3.53, indicating a downside potential of 36.3% [11] Investment Thesis - Business Transition: Ming Yuan Cloud is in the early stages of transitioning its business model amidst a challenging real estate market in China [7] - Cash Position: Strong net cash position of Rmb3.8 billion as of 1H24, with 71% held in USD/HKD offshore [7] - Operational Efficiency: Effective OPEX reduction leading to a positive net profit inflection expected in 2H24E [9] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Faster recovery in the real estate sector, increased digitization demand, successful transition into new business initiatives, and improved market sentiment [10] - Downside Risks: Poor execution in cost reduction, weaker sales cycles, and slow share repurchase program execution [10] Financial Metrics - Market Cap: HK$6.5 billion / $829.4 million [11] - Revenue Estimates: Expected revenues for 2025E at Rmb1,434.8 million [11] - EBITDA: Projected negative EBITDA for 2024, turning positive in subsequent years [11] Conclusion - Rating: Neutral on Ming Yuan Cloud, with a cautious outlook given the current market conditions and the company's transition phase [9][10]
明源云 - 2025 年上半年盈利预警积极；成本控制超预期；评级中性-Ming Yuan Cloud (0909.HK)_ 1H25 positive profit alert; Above-expected cost control; Neutral