Citi(US:C)2025-08-11 02:58Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was 12,135 kt, reflecting a 0.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW) but a 3.7% increase year-over-year (YoY). On a lunar calendar basis, output increased by 3.4% YoY [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: 2,950 kt (-0.3% WoW, +11.7% YoY, +11.3% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: 3,620 kt (+4.8% WoW, +0.9% YoY, +0.4% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 5,565 kt (-2.8% WoW, +1.7% YoY, +1.5% lunar YoY) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached 388 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.7% increase YoY [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 89.9%, a 0.1 percentage point (ppt) decrease WoW, but a 3.2 ppt increase YoY. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was 3.0 ppt YoY [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: 85.7% (-0.3 ppt WoW, +9.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 92.4% (+4.2 ppt WoW, +0.8 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 90.6% (-2.7 ppt WoW, +1.5 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was 3,206 kt as of August 6, 2025, showing a 0.3% decrease WoW and a 2.4% increase YoY. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was 2.0% YoY [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: 892 kt (-0.3% WoW, +6.2% YoY) - Shaanxi: 699 kt (+4.2% WoW, -10.6% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 1,615 kt (-2.1% WoW, +7.0% YoY) [4] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector, despite some positive year-over-year production figures [1] - The pecking order of demand for various materials in the market is noted as: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the thermal coal production and inventory report, highlighting trends in production, utilization, and inventory levels across key regions in China.