Apple(US:AAPL)2025-08-11 02:58Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's iPhone EMS Build Plan Company and Industry - Company: Apple Inc. - Industry: Technology, specifically focusing on smartphone manufacturing and supply chain dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. Revised iPhone EMS Build Estimates: The 2H25 iPhone EMS build plan estimates have been increased to 247 million units from a previous estimate of 235 million units, reflecting a 5% increase [6] 2. Factors Driving Upward Revision: - Removal of tariff concerns is a significant factor contributing to the upward revision [6] - Anticipation that China will allow eSIM for iPhone Slim/Air, potentially boosting demand in China [6] 3. Long-term Shipment Outlook: The company remains optimistic about long-term shipments, expecting Apple to introduce more iPhone models with new form factors, including the iPhone 17 series in 2H25 and a foldable iPhone in 2H26 [1][6] 4. iPhone 17 Series Build Estimates: The iPhone 17 series build estimate for 2H25 has been raised to 94 million units, indicating flat year-over-year growth compared to the iPhone 16 series build in 2H24 [6] 5. Quarterly Build Projections: - 3Q25 is projected at 59 million units and 4Q25 at 84 million units, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth for 2H25 [6] 6. Optical Components Outlook: The report suggests that optical components will see stronger earnings due to specification improvements, with Largan being a preferred pick due to gradual lens spec improvements [6] Additional Important Insights 1. Future iPhone Roadmap: The anticipated launch of new iPhone models includes: - iPhone 17e in 1H26 - Foldable iPhone in 2H26 - iPhone 18e and base model in 1H27 [1] 2. Impact of Tariff Exemptions: The potential tariff exemption due to Apple's significant investment in the U.S. is expected to positively influence the build estimates [6] 3. China's eSIM Ban: The possible removal of the eSIM ban in China is seen as a critical factor for increasing demand for the iPhone Slim, which exclusively uses eSIM technology [6] 4. Analyst Recommendations: The report emphasizes a selective approach towards Apple supply chain names, highlighting Largan and Genius for their product diversification and expected performance improvements [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan report regarding Apple's iPhone EMS build plan and the broader implications for the technology industry.