伯恩斯坦：寒武纪订单大增

Summary of Conference Call on China Semiconductors and Cambricon Industry Overview - The focus is on the China AI and Semiconductor industry, particularly the developments surrounding Cambricon Technologies and its competitive landscape against Nvidia and other local chip vendors. Key Points and Arguments Cambricon's Market Position - Cambricon's share price increased by 20% due to news from Chinese authorities urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia's H20 AI chip, which is expected to boost demand for local AI chips [1] - Anticipated higher revenue for Cambricon is supported by strong order expectations from local customers and the acquisition of 7nm additional local capacity for AI chip production [1] Demand Dynamics - Demand for Nvidia's H20 chip remains strong, projected at over USD 10 billion for the second half of 2025; however, recent policy shifts in China may create a larger market for local AI chips [2] - Local customers are expected to continue purchasing H20 chips, but any restrictions could delay shipments and increase demand for local vendors like Cambricon and Hygon [2] Advanced Logic Supply - The supply of advanced logic chips was previously a bottleneck for local AI chip vendors, but expectations have shifted positively for Cambricon, with potential allocation of 2kwpm 7nm capacity for 2026 sales [3] - This capacity could translate to approximately 480,000 chip sales for 2026, leading to projected revenues of RMB 28.8 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates [3] Supply Chain Implications - The positive outlook for Cambricon extends to the broader supply chain, benefiting foundries like SMIC and equipment vendors such as NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech [4] - Foundries with advanced logic capabilities are expected to see increased orders from local AI chip manufacturers [4] Investment Ratings - Cambricon is rated as Market-Perform with a price target of CNY 600 [5] - Other companies in the sector, such as Hygon, SMIC, NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech, are rated Outperform [5] Additional Important Insights - The market's positive reaction to Cambricon's expected capacity allocation indicates strong investor sentiment and optimism for the local semiconductor ecosystem [3][4] - Risks include potential sanctions on Cambricon and Hygon due to their status on the US Entity List, which could impact their market share and operational capabilities [16][17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China AI and semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Cambricon's strategic positioning and market dynamics.