Citi(US:C)2025-08-18 02:52Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Materials industry, specifically the steel sector and its demand trends in China [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Demand Recovery Expectations: Market expectations for a demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious, with the current pecking order of demand being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] - Steel Production Data: - For the week of August 8 to August 14, 2025, total steel production in China was 8.7 million tons (mt), reflecting a 0.3% week-over-week (WoW) increase and a 12% year-over-year (YoY) increase. - Breakdown of production: - Rebar: 2.2 mt (-0.3% WoW, +32.5% YoY) - Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): 3.2 mt (+0.2% WoW, +4.7% YoY) - Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC): 0.9 mt (+0.2% WoW, +7.5% YoY) [1] - Year-to-Date Production: - Total steel production from the beginning of the year to date was 282.7 mt, down 0.5% YoY. - Year-to-date production breakdown: - Rebar: 70.4 mt (-2.6% YoY) - HRC: 105.5 mt (+0.6% YoY) - CRC: 28.6 mt (+2.3% YoY) [1] - Steel Inventory Levels: - As of August 14, 2025, China's steel inventory stood at 14.2 mt, which is a 3% WoW increase but a 16.7% YoY decrease. - Inventory breakdown: - Steel mills: 4.3 mt (+3% WoW, -8.6% YoY) - Traders: 9.9 mt (+2.9% WoW, -19.8% YoY) - Total inventory of rebar, HRC, and CRC was 5.9 mt, 3.6 mt, and 1.4 mt respectively [1] - Apparent Consumption: - For the week of August 8 to August 14, 2025, apparent consumption of steel in China was 8.3 mt, down 1.7% WoW but up 3.8% YoY. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: 1.9 mt (-9.9% WoW, -3.1% YoY) - HRC: 3.1 mt (+2.8% WoW, +9.2% YoY) - CRC: 0.9 mt (-0.6% WoW, +24.8% YoY) [1] - Year-to-Date Apparent Consumption: - Year-to-date apparent consumption of steel was 279.5 mt, down 0.3% YoY. - Year-to-date breakdown: - Rebar: 68.3 mt (-4.1% YoY) - HRC: 105.1 mt (+1.6% YoY) - CRC: 28.6 mt (+4.6% YoY) [1] Additional Important Information - The report utilizes data from Mysteel, a key source for steel market information in China [1] - The analysis indicates a mixed outlook for the steel industry, with certain segments like HRC and CRC showing positive growth while overall production and consumption figures reflect a more cautious market sentiment [1]