空间测算：液冷有多大的星辰大海？

Summary of Liquid Cooling Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic liquid cooling market is gradually penetrating and expanding, with a projected market size of 7 to 8 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a broad application prospect for liquid cooling technology [1][3] - The liquid cooling market is expected to reach approximately 2 billion RMB in 2024, 4 to 5 billion RMB in 2025, and 7 to 8 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting the gradual penetration and expansion of liquid cooling technology in China [3] Key Insights and Arguments - NVIDIA's GTC conference introduced liquid cooling architecture, with the GB200 single cabinet valued at approximately 80,000 USD and the GB300 at about 110,000 USD, marking the entry of liquid cooling technology into a phase of large-scale application [1][5] - Under the assumption of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 cabinet shipments, the liquid cooling market is projected to reach 20 to 30 billion RMB in 2025, potentially increasing to 70 billion RMB in 2026 if 100,000 cabinets are delivered [7] - Meta plans to adopt 100% liquid cooling, while Google and Amazon are also set to launch liquid cooling architecture products, indicating a significant shift in the industry [8][9] - The total market size for liquid cooling in the NVIDIA and ASIC sectors could reach 90 billion RMB by 2026, approaching a 100 billion RMB market, showcasing immense market potential [8] Additional Important Content - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing steep growth, currently in a rapid penetration phase, and has a unique advantage compared to cloud service capital expenditures [11] - The liquid cooling technology's future development potential is substantial, with rapid increases in penetration rates and growth driven by sectors like NVIDIA and ASIC [12] - If leading companies achieve order breakthroughs overseas, it will significantly enhance their market share and EPS growth, leading to higher valuation premiums and stock price elasticity [2][12] - The liquid cooling market's growth trajectory is steeper compared to the optical module industry, which saw its overseas market grow from 26 billion RMB to 67 billion RMB between 2023 and 2024 [11] Conclusion - The liquid cooling technology sector is poised for significant growth, driven by major players like NVIDIA and the increasing adoption by tech giants such as Meta, Google, and Amazon. The market's potential is vast, with projections indicating a rapid expansion towards a near 100 billion RMB market by 2026, making it a critical area for investment consideration.