Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Export and Trade - Key Focus: High-frequency data tracking of Chinese exports and cargo throughput as of August 20, 2023 Core Insights 1. US-China Tariff Situation: Tail risks associated with US-China tariffs have been largely mitigated due to the official extension of the tariff truce, although demand uncertainty from the US remains a concern [2][2][2] 2. Container Ship Departures: There was a year-on-year decline of -9.4% in container ship departures from China to the US for the 15 days ending August 20, slightly improving from -12.6% a week prior [2][2][13] 3. US Import Bills: Seaborne import bills from China to the US remained stable at approximately US$1.3 billion, reflecting a decline of -19.4% year-on-year [2][2][14] 4. Cargo Throughput Trends: Overall cargo throughput growth in China softened to 2.6% year-on-year for the week ending August 17, down from 6.8% the previous week, indicating the impact of a high base from the previous year [3][3][6] 5. Containership Arrivals: Containership arrivals at ASEAN ports grew by 3.7% year-on-year for the week ending August 20, a decrease from 7.6% the week before, suggesting a similar high base effect [3][3][12] Additional Important Details 1. Overall Cargo Throughput: The overall cargo throughput expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August, compared to 10.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a significant slowdown [3][3][3] 2. Market Volatility: Despite the defusion of tariff risks, volatility in China's direct exports to the US may increase in the coming months due to ongoing concerns regarding US demand [2][2][2] 3. Analyst Contact Information: Analysts involved in the report include Xiangrong Yu, Xinyu Ji, and Yuanliu Hu, with their contact details provided for further inquiries [4][4][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call regarding the current state of Chinese exports and trade dynamics, particularly in relation to US-China relations and market conditions.
中国出口追踪:高基数带来的挑战