Citi(US:C)2025-08-25 01:40Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (August 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of August 14-20, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 848,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production reached 348 kt, showing a 1% increase WoW and a 3% increase YoY [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for 2025 was 28.6 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.5 mnt, up 5.8% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 883 kt as of August 21, 2025, a decrease of 2% WoW and 15% YoY [3] - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 717 kt, down 1% WoW and 22% YoY - Producers' inventory: 167 kt, down 5% WoW but up 30% YoY [3] - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 655 kt, flat WoW and down 23% YoY - Aluminum billet inventory: 228 kt, down 7% WoW but up 20% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 898 kt during the week, an increase of 3% WoW and 2% YoY [4] - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 897 kt, up 2% WoW and 1% YoY - Aluminum billet: 349 kt, up 5% WoW and 4% YoY [4] - YTD apparent consumption for 2025 was 29.4 mnt, reflecting a 4.8% increase YoY [4] Market Insights - The report suggests that the aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand, as it encompasses a broader range of inventory types [5] - The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW and was lower than the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on a lunar calendar basis [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on a lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in demand compared to other materials such as steel, copper, and thermal coal, indicating a strong market position [1] - The cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery is noted, suggesting potential volatility in future demand trends [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings from the report on aluminum inventory and consumption in China, highlighting production, inventory levels, apparent consumption, and market insights.