日本经济展望：关税、货币政策、政治格局(1)

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - Industry: Japanese Economy - Company: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% based on 2Q 2025 GDP figures, which showed a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, exceeding market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US [10] - The expected impact on growth rates due to tariff changes is -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Monetary Policy Outlook - No significant changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance on interest rate hikes are expected unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [4][46] - An interest rate hike is anticipated in October, influenced by the political calendar and economic measures [46][47] Political Landscape and Future Cooperation - The political situation will be influenced by the outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with potential cooperation with opposition parties depending on the outcome [38][42] - If Prime Minister Ishiba remains in office, cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely [38][42] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - High uncertainty exists regarding future economic measures, with a placeholder assumption of a supplementary budget of about 15 trillion yen [34] - Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - Nominal wage increases of at least 3% are deemed necessary to address the negative real wage gap [15] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - The long-term trend in economic policy is shifting from monetary policy to fiscal policy, focusing more on household-oriented policies rather than corporate-oriented ones [45][42] Other Important Content - The presence of a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will significantly influence future political cooperation and economic policy direction [38][42] - The economic measures and their scale will be critical in shaping the economic outlook, with potential implications for fiscal policy and public sentiment regarding inflation and consumption [34][23]