Summary of Greentown China Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK) - Industry: Real Estate Development Key Financial Performance - 1H25 Net Profit: Declined by 90% year-on-year (yoy) to Rmb0.2 billion, aligning with profit alert [1] - Revenue: Decreased by 23% yoy to Rmb53.368 billion in 1H25 [9] - Gross Profit: Dropped by 21% yoy to Rmb7.159 billion [9] - Core Profit: Excluding distribution to PCS, fell by 67% yoy to Rmb1.635 billion [9] - Impairment Loss: Increased to -Rmb1.9 billion in 1H25 from -Rmb1.7 billion in 1H24 [1][8] - Debt Structure: Total debt increased by 4% from end-24 levels, but short-term debt coverage ratio improved to 2.9X [1][6] Management Guidance and Strategic Outlook - Contract Sales Guidance: Revised up for 2025E to approximately flat yoy, supported by Rmb176 billion saleable resources planned for 2H25 [2] - New Land Acquisitions: Expected to contribute Rmb50 billion in sales from Rmb91 billion saleable resources [2] - Portfolio Optimization: Aimed to fully de-stock Rmb140 billion unsold inventory over the next 3-5 years [2] - Sales Forecast: 2025E contract sales forecast raised to Rmb171 billion, flat yoy, with potential upside risk due to new launches [5] Operational Highlights - Sell-Through Rate: First-time launched projects achieved an 80% sell-through rate in 1H25, with strong pricing performance [6] - Land Banking: Greentown added 35 new projects in 1H25, ranking No.3 nationwide by saleable resources [6] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Improved to 12.7% in 1H25, up 1 percentage point yoy [6] Risks and Challenges - Revenue Contraction: DP revenue contracted by 22% yoy due to smaller GFA booking [7] - High SG&A Expenses: Increased ratio of SG&A expenses against revenue due to low revenue booking [8] - Impairment Losses: Continued negative impact from aged inventory sales and impairments [5] Investment Thesis - Rating: Buy rating maintained, with a 12-month target price of HK$13.8, based on a 15% discount to end-25E NAV [10][12] - Market Position: Greentown is positioned to be among the top-10 companies by profit in China's property sector by 2026E [10] Conclusion - Greentown China Holdings is navigating a challenging environment with significant declines in profit and revenue, but management's strategic focus on land acquisition, sales optimization, and debt management presents a recovery outlook. The company remains a potential investment opportunity with a maintained Buy rating.
绿城中国 - 2025 年上半年因签约额低不及预期；投资效率提升支撑复苏前景；买入评级