Summary of China Oil Data Digest - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, demand, and trade data for July 2025. Key Points Apparent Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand grew by +5% YoY in July, averaging 16.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) [2][5] - Demand was driven by strong performance in the petrochemical sector, fuel oil, and jet fuel, with jet fuel consumption increasing by +15% YoY due to robust summer travel [2][23] Crude Imports and Refinery Runs - Crude imports decreased by 1.0 mb/d MoM to 11.2 mb/d, influenced by higher prices from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia and the Atlantic basin [3][48] - Refinery runs declined by 300 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) MoM to 14.9 mb/d, but remained 7% higher YoY due to elevated run rates at state-owned refineries [4][54] Exports - Exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel increased by 190 kb/d MoM, supported by strong refinery output and improving export margins [5][63] - Gasoline exports reached 250 kb/d in July, up 15% MoM, while diesel and jet fuel exports also saw significant increases [63][75] Diesel Demand - Apparent diesel demand softened MoM but showed YoY growth of +2%, marking the first time there were two consecutive months of positive YoY growth since March 2024 [10][15] - The decline in MoM demand was attributed to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions impacting construction activity [11][12] LPG and Naphtha - Apparent LPG demand rose by +9% MoM, driven by improved demand from the petrochemical sector [35] - Apparent naphtha demand fell sharply by 14% MoM, reversing gains from June due to competitive pricing from LPG and ethane [38][43] Crude Production - Chinese crude production fell by 170 kb/d MoM but showed a steady YoY growth of +1% due to new field startups [46][48] Inventory Trends - Crude stocks built by 21.8 million barrels in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of crude builds, likely for strategic reasons [144] - Observable product inventories increased by 9.0 million barrels, driven by strong refinery output and soft domestic demand [145] Future Outlook - Jet fuel demand is expected to remain strong in August due to continued summer travel [29] - Diesel demand may face pressure from slowing export momentum and seasonal construction activity [13] - The independent refining sector is likely to see improved utilization rates due to better margins and increased capacity [121][122] Regulatory Environment - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 34.2 million tonnes, with state-owned companies receiving the majority [87][88] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as US sanctions on Iranian oil, affecting Chinese imports and refining strategies [49][50][52] Conclusion - The July 2025 oil data indicates a mixed outlook for the Chinese oil market, with strong demand in certain sectors like jet fuel and LPG, while facing challenges in diesel and naphtha. The regulatory environment and geopolitical factors will continue to shape market dynamics moving forward.
中国原油数据总结-Oil Data Digest-China Oil Data Summary