毛戈平_业绩回顾_上调 2025 财年净利润指引至 12 亿元人民币；渠道和品类平衡增长，成本效率提升；中性评级

Summary of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - Company: Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. - Ticker: 1318.HK - Industry: Cosmetics Key Points FY25 Guidance and Financial Outlook 1. Sales and Net Income Guidance: Management reiterated FY25 sales guidance of RMB5 billion, reflecting a 30% year-over-year growth, and slightly increased net income guidance to RMB1.2 billion from RMB1.18 billion, indicating improved return on investment due to brand investments [1][18] 2. 2H25 Performance Expectation: The company expects 2H25 performance to be similar to 1H25, maintaining a net income year-over-year growth of approximately 36% [1][18] Product Pipeline and Category Progress 3. Color Cosmetics: Management sees significant potential across various product lines, with plans to launch new SKUs starting with blush, followed by lip and eye products [2][21] 4. Skincare: A new skincare line is showing early success, with plans to expand the range in 2H25 to meet diverse skin needs [2][21] 5. Fragrance: The roadmap includes advanced iterations of fragrances tailored to different environments and emotional moods, with profitability expected to improve in 2H25 [2][22] Channel Strategy and Execution 6. Online Sales Growth: Online channels, particularly Douyin and Tmall, saw significant growth of 44% and 31% year-over-year respectively in 1H25, with a focus on ROI and avoiding over-reliance on top KOLs [3][28] 7. Offline Sales Performance: Sales per store increased from RMB2.4 million to RMB2.9 million in 1H25, driven by a higher mix of new customers and improved repurchase rates [3][28] 8. Store Expansion Plans: The company aims to reach a target of 600 stores with approximately 30 net openings per year [3][28] Overseas Expansion 9. International Market Entry: The first store outside Mainland China is set to open in Hong Kong's Harbour City in 2H25, with future plans for expansion into Singapore, Japan, and South Korea [4][15][28] Financial Metrics and Valuation 10. Key Financial Data: - Enterprise Value: HK$42.2 billion - Market Cap: HK$46.1 billion - Revenue Forecasts: Expected revenue for FY25 is RMB5.1 billion, with a net income of RMB1.2 billion, reflecting a 32% and 36% year-over-year growth respectively [5][17] 11. Earnings Revisions: The earnings forecast for 2025-27 has been revised up by 2-3% due to improved profitability, despite slightly weaker sales and gross profit margin contraction [17][26] Risks and Considerations 12. Key Risks: Potential risks include the pace of beauty consumption penetration in China, online sales growth, new product development, and the effectiveness of ROI strategies in expanding the consumer base [27][32] Dividend Policy 13. Dividend Payout Ratio: Management has set a base dividend payout ratio of 30% [25] Analyst Rating 14. Current Rating: The stock maintains a Neutral rating, with a target price of HKD89, reflecting a 29x target average P/E against expected net income growth [16][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the earnings review of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., highlighting the company's growth strategies, financial outlook, and market positioning within the cosmetics industry.