Summary of CALB Co. (3931.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: CALB Co. (3931.HK) - Industry: Battery manufacturing, specifically for electric vehicles (EVs) Key Financial Results - 1H25 Performance: - Net Profit: Rmb 466 million, up 87% year-over-year (yoy) and 36% half-over-half (hoh), beating Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) by 23% [1] - Revenue: Rmb 16.4 billion, up 32% yoy and 7% hoh, exceeding GSe by 12% [1] - Sales Volume: Estimated at 45 GWh, up 80% yoy and 7% hoh, also beating GSe by 7% [1] Profitability Metrics - Unit Gross Profit (GP): Rmb 64/kWh in 1H25, an increase from Rmb 59/kWh in 2H24 but down from Rmb 78/kWh in 1H24 [2] - Operating Expenses (OPEX): Declined to approximately Rmb 38/kWh from Rmb 50/kWh in 2023-2024, indicating strong operating leverage improvement [2] - Unit EBIT: Expanded from approximately Rmb 17/kWh in 2024 to Rmb 26/kWh in 1H25 [2] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - EPS Estimates: Raised by 36% and 10% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting more positive volume assumptions of 110 GWh and 130 GWh [3] - Unit GP Assumptions: Trimmed by Rmb 1/kWh for 2025-2027E to Rmb 66/kWh, Rmb 73/kWh, and Rmb 74/kWh [3] - 2027E EPS Forecast: Lowered by 14% due to a more cautious view on Total Addressable Market (TAM) [3] Valuation and Price Target - Target Price (TP): Maintained at HK$19.60, derived from a near- and long-term valuation approach [4] - Valuation Method: Utilizes a 3-month average P/E of 16.9x for 2025-26E average EPS and a long-term P/E of 15.0x for 2030E, discounted back to 2025E at an 11.3% cost of equity (COE) [4][36] Market Position and Customer Diversification - Customer Contribution: The contribution from CALB's largest customer declined from 44% in 2023 to 11% in 1H25, indicating a more diversified customer base [19] - Market Share: CALB has become a major supplier to selective OEMs, achieving a market share of 7% in June 2025 [23] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Include slower-than-expected industry capacity expansion, new long-term contracts with major OEMs, and the launch of advanced battery products [37] - Downside Risks: Include slower-than-expected overseas project progress, stronger domestic price competition, and financial risks from aggressive capacity expansion [37] Conclusion - Investment Rating: Neutral, as the risk-reward is viewed as balanced [18][39] - Market Context: CALB is the 3rd-largest battery maker in China by installed capacity and ranked 4th globally among EV battery suppliers [38]
中创新航_2025 年上半年业绩因销量强劲超出预期；维持中性评级，目标价上调