中国电池材料_中国电池供应链实地调研_9 月产能管线好于预期-China Battery Materials_ China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground_ Sep prod pipeline ahead of expectation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Battery Materials - Focus: Battery supply chain and production pipeline for September 2025 Core Insights - Production Pipeline Growth: The production pipeline of the top-5 battery makers is expected to increase by approximately 4% month-over-month (MoM) and 35% year-over-year (YoY) to around 120 GWh, indicating a continuation of the upward trend into September 2025 [1] - Demand Factors: The resilient demand from Energy Storage Systems (ESS) is partially offsetting the slowing momentum in New Energy Vehicles (NEV) [1] - Production Adjustments: There may be a pull-forward in production due to volatile carbonate prices, which is influencing supply responses from spod-based OEM processing [1] - Lithium Production Decline: The lithium production pipeline is projected to decrease by about 2% MoM, equating to approximately 2,100 tons, as current carbonate prices incentivize increased supply [1] Company-Specific Insights - EVE Energy: Strong demand in ESS aligns with a positive outlook for EVE Energy, which is expected to support average selling price (ASP) increases and margin expansion in the second half of 2025 [1] - Valuation of EVE Energy: The company is valued at RMB 59.20 per share using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) approach, with the battery business valued at RMB 52.2 per share based on a 16x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple [14] - Risk Assessment: EVE Energy is rated as high risk based on quantitative models, but qualitative factors such as a solid market position and growth outlook mitigate this risk. Key downside risks include potential impacts from COVID-19-like situations, slower EV penetration in a low oil price environment, and rising raw material costs [15] Additional Important Information - Production Forecasts: - Cathode production is forecasted to increase by 1% MoM [5] - Anode production is expected to rise by 2% MoM [7] - Electrolyte production is also projected to grow by 2% MoM [11] - Market Dynamics: The overall dynamics in the battery materials sector are influenced by both demand from ESS and fluctuations in raw material prices, which are critical for production planning and pricing strategies [1][15]