Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714)2025-09-01 02:01Summary of the Livestock Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The traditional pig cycle model has changed, with smallholders increasingly engaging in fattening rather than breeding, leading to reduced production volatility [1][2] - The top 35 pig farming companies now hold approximately 36% market share, indicating increased industry concentration and smaller production fluctuations [1][2] Government Policies - Since 2022, the government has implemented capacity regulation policies aimed at stabilizing market prices and controlling production [3] - Policies include setting targets for sow inventory, with a target of 39.5 million sows by July 2025, while actual slaughter numbers reached 40.42 million [3] - Adjustments to slaughter weights are also part of the measures to stabilize production and prices, addressing CPI pressures [3] Future Trends - The pig farming industry is expected to transition to a new normal characterized by stable production and price maintenance, moving away from growth and cyclical volatility [4] - Large-scale enterprises will continue to expand, benefiting from more stable production control [4][5] Company Spotlight: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods has a long-term selling price assumption of 14 RMB per kilogram, with costs reduced to 11.8 RMB per kilogram, leading to a long-term average cost of approximately 11.5 RMB per kilogram [5] - The profit per kilogram is 2.5 RMB, translating to a profit of 300 RMB per pig [5] - The company's annual profit is projected to exceed 25 billion RMB, with free cash flow estimated between 35 billion to 50 billion RMB, while its current market capitalization of 300 billion RMB is considered significantly undervalued [5] Investment Opportunities - There is a sector-wide opportunity for valuation reconfiguration among high-quality pig farming stocks [6] - Given the strong profitability and stable cash flow of large-scale companies like Muyuan Foods, active investment in high-quality pig farming stocks is recommended under the new normal of stable production and price maintenance [6]