Summary of Shangmei Group's Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Group's valuation has reached 30 times earnings, exceeding the historical average of 20 times, primarily due to market recognition of its multi-brand development strategy over the next 3-5 years [2][4][15] - The company has experienced significant growth phases since its listing, with a notable increase in valuation from 20 times to 30 times in 2025, driven by its long-term strategy [4][5] Key Points and Arguments Brand Performance - The Han Shu brand previously accounted for over 80% of sales on Douyin, but the company has strategically reduced its investment in direct broadcasting from 50% in 2024 to less than 20% in 2025, shifting focus to live streaming and product card malls [2][7][9] - Despite a short-term impact on GMV, this adjustment has alleviated pressure on profit margins, with GMV data recovering positively from March 2025 [7][9] - Han Shu's growth rate was significant in May and June 2025, maintaining over 50% growth even during the traditionally slower months of July and August [10] Future Growth Strategy - Shangmei Group aims to achieve sales of 20 billion yuan for the Han Shu brand by 2030, positioning it as the leading beauty brand in China through channel and product expansion [11] - The company is diversifying its product categories, with new products accounting for 30%-40% of total offerings, and establishing independent divisions for men's skincare and color cosmetics [8][12] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for 2025 is 8.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, corresponding to a current valuation of 30 times earnings; projections for 2026 indicate revenue of 14.3 billion yuan at a valuation of approximately 23-24 times [3][15] - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with full-year profit estimates between 1.1 billion and 1.15 billion yuan [15] Emerging Brands - The Yi Ye brand, positioned as a mid-to-high-end domestic product for mothers and infants, has rapidly grown, with a gross margin exceeding 80% and a net margin of over 15%, expected to reach a scale of over 1.5 billion yuan with a net margin of 25% [2][13] - New brands launched in 2025, such as AMU and Ji Fang, have shown promising early performance, contributing to the company's long-term growth strategy [14] Additional Important Insights - The company has made significant adjustments to its channel strategy, focusing on emerging platforms like Kuaishou and traditional e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD, indicating a clear strategic direction despite reduced investment in direct broadcasting [9] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is a critical period for the Han Shu brand, where the company plans to leverage its marketing strategies to maximize market opportunities [16]
上美股份20250903