Oshkosh (OSK) 2025 Conference Transcript

Summary of Oshkosh (OSK) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - Oshkosh is a global industrial technology company with approximately $11 billion in revenue and around 18,000 employees [3][4] - The company focuses on providing machinery for challenging jobs, with a strategy centered on innovation, service, and advancement [4][10] Key Segments 1. Access Segment - Produces equipment for working at heights, including booms and telehandlers [5] - Revenue guidance for this segment is projected at $4.4 billion, down about 15% from the previous year [39] - Demand is mixed due to construction market uncertainties, with strong demand from data centers and mega projects but weakness in non-residential construction [20][39] 2. Vocational Segment - Includes fire trucks, refuse vehicles, and airport products [6] - Strong demand driven by aging fleets and funding from the CARES Act, leading to a significant backlog [23][24] - Capacity expansions are focused on intelligent manufacturing improvements to address backlog [29] 3. Transport Segment - Involves vehicles for the US Postal Service and the Department of Defense [7] - Margin expansion expected due to new contracts with economic price adjustment clauses, improving from a 2.5% margin in 2024 to a projected 10% by 2028 [59][61] Financial Projections - Oshkosh anticipates a 7-10% annual compound growth rate for revenue from now until 2028 [8] - Operating income is expected to increase from 10% to 14%, and EPS is projected to rise from $11 to between $18 and $22 per share [9][10] - Cash conversion is targeted to exceed 90% through the cycle from 2025 to 2028 [9] Tariffs and Economic Impact - Recent tariffs on steel components are expected to have a delayed impact, with no material effect anticipated in Q3 but potential effects in Q4 [14][15] - Demand across segments is affected differently by tariffs, with the transport and vocational segments showing resilience [16][18] Capacity and Production - The company is investing in capacity expansions to meet increased demand, particularly in the vocational segment [29] - Intelligent capacity actions include automation and ergonomic improvements to enhance production efficiency [29][33] Market Dynamics - The fire truck market is experiencing a peak due to increased orders and funding, with lead times extending to 2028 for custom orders [26][32] - The refuse vehicle market is also growing due to aging fleets and technological upgrades [35][37] Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of AeroTech is seen as a strategic move to expand into the airport machinery market, with potential for international growth [73][78] - The integration of AeroTech is expected to yield operational efficiencies and cost savings [77][78] Conclusion - Oshkosh presents a compelling investment thesis with strong growth prospects across its segments, driven by strategic initiatives, market demand, and operational efficiencies [10][11]