Lilly(LLY) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong second quarter in 2025, driven by the incretin teams on Mounjaro and Zepbound, particularly in the U.S. and internationally [2] - The U.S. opportunity in type 2 diabetes is significant, with a reported HbA1c reduction of 1.8 and weight loss of 10.5 in the obese population with type 2 diabetes [6][7] - The company anticipates a gradual growth in the second half of the year, contrasting with the strong performance in Q2 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The composition of the U.S. business is shifting, with 25% of incretin performance coming from type 2 diabetes and 75% from chronic weight management [10] - The company launched Mounjaro in Brazil, Mexico, India, and China, with a significant portion of Q2 sales attributed to chronic weight management [15] - The company expects to see a gradual growth in the second half of the year due to fewer major launches compared to Q2 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market for oral type 2 diabetes medications is substantial, with approximately 4 million patients on orals each month [6] - The company noted that the majority of its business outside the U.S. is cash-based, with limited reimbursement for chronic weight management [10] - The company is negotiating for type 2 diabetes reimbursement in several international markets, which is expected to take time [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on launching a rich pipeline of products over the remaining part of the decade, with several launches planned for the second half of the year [2] - The management emphasized the importance of outcome data to gain access and reimbursement for chronic weight management, both in the U.S. and internationally [14] - The company is optimistic about the future of its oncology and neuroscience portfolios, with several promising assets in development [41][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the guidance for 2025, citing a lack of supply constraints that affected previous years [26] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in the U.S. diabetes market and is working to improve employer opt-in rates for chronic weight management [27][28] - Management acknowledged the challenges of gaining reimbursement for chronic weight management outside the U.S. but remains committed to differentiating its products [36] Other Important Information - The company is facing legal challenges related to compounding lawsuits but is actively pursuing various strategies to address these issues [45] - The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the company's business is still uncertain, with management anticipating some effects on Medicare and Medicaid [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the product profile of Orforglipron fitting in the marketplace? - Management indicated that Orforglipron has a strong safety and tolerability profile, with appealing data for both HbA1c reduction and weight loss [3][4] Question: What are the expectations for the U.S. market penetration with R4? - Management believes R4 will be a global player, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market for type 2 diabetes [6][12] Question: How does the company view the impact of the CVS change on Zepbound? - Management noted that the CVS change affected approximately 200,000 patients, but they have seen a return to strong growth in market share for Zepbound [22][23] Question: What is the outlook for the company's guidance compared to last year? - Management stated that the guidance process remains consistent, with more certainty in 2025 compared to the unpredictable conditions of 2024 [25][26] Question: How is the company addressing the access situation for 2026? - Management reported that they have made progress in employer opt-in rates and are in discussions for broader coverage in Medicare [27][28] Question: What is the competitive landscape in international markets? - Management acknowledged increased competition but emphasized their differentiation strategy and premium pricing for Mounjaro [33][36] Question: What are the exciting opportunities in the non-incretin side of the business? - Management highlighted the oncology franchise as particularly promising, with several assets in development that could drive future growth [41][42]