中国可能在何处囤积人工智能芯片？-专家电话会议要点：中国人工智能芯片的需求、产能与良率-Where could China accumulate its AI chips__ Takeaways from expert call_ China‘s AI chip demand, capacity and yield

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's AI Chip Market Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the AI chip market in China, specifically addressing the potential growth in production capacity by 2026 and its implications for foreign vendors like NVIDIA [1][2]. Core Insights - Demand Growth: The expert predicts that domestic AI chip shipments in China will accelerate significantly in 2026, with estimates of demand reaching 2.9-3.6 million units [3]. - Market Share Dynamics: - In 2024, NVIDIA is expected to hold approximately 70% of the market share, with Huawei at 20% and other players like AMD and T-Head making up the remainder [3]. - By 2025, NVIDIA's share is projected to drop to 50%, while Huawei's share is expected to increase to 30% [3]. - For 2026, NVIDIA's market share is anticipated to further decline to around 30%, with Huawei expected to capture 50% [3]. Production Capacity Insights - SMIC's Capacity Expansion: The expert estimates that SMIC will increase its sub-7nm capacity from 15kwpm to 25kwpm by the end of Q3 2025, which could significantly impact AI chip production [4]. - Yield Rates: The yield rate is estimated at 20%, with each 5kwpm capacity generating approximately 900,000 AI chip dies annually [4]. Challenges and Constraints - The expert highlighted that the growth in demand for AI chips in 2024-2025 is constrained by: 1. The H20 ban. 2. US restrictions on Chinese IC design companies collaborating with TSMC for high-performance AI chips [3]. - Despite these challenges, some Chinese IC design companies are still able to produce AI chips for inference purposes without high-bandwidth memory (HBM) at TSMC [3]. Additional Considerations - The expert expressed skepticism regarding claims in a Financial Times article that suggested China could triple its AI chip output by 2026, labeling it as "too exaggerated" [2][3]. - The expert emphasized the need for breakthroughs in domestic semiconductor equipment to achieve further capacity increases beyond 25kwpm [4]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a nuanced view of the AI chip market in China, highlighting both the potential for growth and the significant challenges posed by geopolitical factors and technological constraints. The insights suggest a competitive landscape where domestic players are poised to increase their market share at the expense of established foreign vendors like NVIDIA.