巨化股份20250909

Summary of the Conference Call for Juhua Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - Juhua Co., Ltd. is the largest chemical base in Zhejiang Province, involved in chlor-alkali chemistry, sulfuric acid chemistry, coal chemistry, and basic fluorine chemistry, forming a complete industrial chain and also engaging in petroleum chemistry [2][3] - The company holds the second-largest market share in domestic second-generation refrigerants and over 30% market share in third-generation refrigerants, leading the domestic market [2][3] Core Products and Market Outlook - The core products include refrigerants and fluorine materials. The second-generation refrigerants, primarily used in the maintenance market, are expected to gradually exit the air conditioning market by 2030 due to the Montreal Protocol, although there will still be some demand in the maintenance market [4][5] - The price of R22, a second-generation refrigerant, has increased by 7.6% to 35,500 CNY/ton as of September 7, 2025 [4] - The third-generation refrigerants are crucial for the company, with a quota system starting in 2024, limiting production and use to 90% of the baseline by 2029 and 20% by 2045. The total quota for 2024 is 746,000 tons, increasing to 791,000 tons in 2025 [5][6] Price Trends and Demand Factors - The sustainability of refrigerant price increases depends on supply-demand dynamics. The supply side is dominated by Chinese companies, while demand is expected to grow in developing countries with low air conditioning penetration, such as India [6] - The price of R32 is currently around 60,000 CNY/ton, with potential for long-term price increases due to strong pricing power and global market leadership [6][8] Competitive Advantages - Juhua Co., Ltd. has a complete production setup with self-sufficient upstream raw materials and has increased market share through the acquisition of Feiyuan, becoming a leader in fourth-generation refrigerants [9] - The company has a total production capacity of 80,000 tons and holds quotas for 39,000 tons of second-generation and 260,000 tons of third-generation refrigerants. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in third-generation refrigerant prices could boost the company's performance by nearly 2 billion CNY [9] Development in Fluorine Materials - The company has significant investments in fluorine materials, including electronic fluorinated liquids and various fluorinated materials, which are widely used in industrial, new energy, and semiconductor fields [10] - Electronic fluorinated liquids are utilized in semiconductor and precision equipment applications, and the company is advancing AI-based immersion cooling technology, considered an ideal and environmentally friendly solution [10] Competitive Landscape - Major global competitors include 3M, Shuwei, and Como. 3M's planned factory closures due to environmental regulations may create market opportunities for Juhua Co., Ltd. [11] - The company is well-positioned to capture market share in high-end applications due to its advanced product offerings and properties [11] Stock Performance and Future Outlook - From 2019 to 2021, Juhua Co., Ltd.'s stock price increased significantly due to market trends and foreign investment, with notable growth in new energy materials [12] - Despite a price decline in PVDF from 400,000 CNY/ton due to domestic supply increases, the overall fundamentals remain strong [12] - The company is expected to benefit from price increases in third and fourth-generation refrigerants and the development of fluorine materials and liquid cooling management materials, indicating substantial growth potential [13]