TSMC(US:TSM)2025-09-11 14:33Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Industry: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Q3 Revenue Expectations - TSMC expects Q3 revenue to exceed previous guidance, with growth potentially reaching 10%, driven by strong demand from Apple’s iPhone 17 series, AI demand, full utilization of N5 nodes, depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, and a strong US dollar [1][3][4] Full Year Revenue Growth - Full-year revenue growth is anticipated to exceed 30%, with actual growth possibly between 33% and 35%. This is attributed to reduced uncertainty in tariff policies and price increases in certain nodes [1][4] AI and Mature Process Developments - TSMC's AI segment is expected to see price increases by late 2025 or early 2026. The mature process segment shows signs of recovery, with demand in packaging and testing increasing [1][5] Geopolitical Impact - The US has revoked TSMC's VEU license for its Nanjing factory, affecting the expansion of the 16nm production line. However, the overall impact is limited as the factory is operating near full capacity [1][6][8] Nanjing Factory Contribution - The Nanjing factory accounts for approximately 4% of TSMC's total production and contributes about 3% to revenue. Even with potential revenue declines, the overall impact on TSMC is minimal [1][8] Intel's Competitive Position - Despite US government support for Intel, TSMC maintains a competitive edge due to its advanced process nodes. Intel's 18A node is behind schedule, and TSMC is expected to dominate the 2nm node market [1][9][13] Advanced Process Progress - TSMC plans to mass-produce the N2 node in the second half of 2025, with orders starting in Q1 2026. This includes significant orders from Apple and Qualcomm [1][10][11] Data Center AI Business Growth - TSMC projects a compound annual growth rate of approximately 45% for its data center AI business over the next five years, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [1][12] Valuation Factors - Recent easing of tariffs, stable exchange rates, and expected price increases in advanced processes are expected to positively influence TSMC's valuation. The current PB ratio is around 8, which is relatively high, but future growth prospects remain strong [1][14][15] Investment Recommendation - TSMC is recommended as a buy due to its competitive position, expected revenue growth, and favorable market conditions in the semiconductor industry [1][15]