当前时点看跨境电商需求和补库节奏

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the cross-border e-commerce industry, focusing on major players like Amazon and Temu, as well as the impact of tariffs on Chinese sellers [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Amazon's Performance: Amazon's third-party seller sales grew approximately 15% in the U.S. and over 20% in Europe, with Germany lagging at about 10% growth [2]. This indicates a stable demand in the cross-border e-commerce market, with Amazon reflecting the true market situation [1]. - Impact of Tariffs: Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers are significantly affected by tariff fluctuations, especially those facing retaliatory tariffs. However, with tariffs stabilizing, sellers are adjusting their inventory strategies accordingly [3][12]. - Temu's Strategy Shift: Temu has transitioned from a fully managed model to a competitive racing model, reducing resource consumption and improving profit margins. This shift is in response to stricter regulations in Europe and the U.S. [6][9]. - Advertising Trends: Amazon has increased its advertising spend in the U.S. market, leading to a recovery in traffic, although it remains lower than last year's levels [7][8]. - Market Dynamics: In 2025, Temu's reduced subsidies and price increases are expected to lessen its impact on Amazon, leading to a more balanced market share among consumer groups [9]. Additional Important Insights - AI Technology: The integration of AI technology is enhancing operational efficiency in the cross-border e-commerce sector, particularly for high-volume sellers. Amazon is leveraging AI tools like RUFUS to improve user experience and purchasing efficiency [25][26][27]. - Logistics Costs: Amazon has committed to not raising prices in 2025, but an increase is anticipated in 2026 due to rising delivery costs and inflation [20][21]. - Independent E-commerce Channels: The development of independent e-commerce channels, such as Shopify, is gaining traction, with Amazon collaborating with Shopify to enhance logistics solutions [31][32][33]. - Regulatory Environment: U.S. customs are tightening regulations on low declaration practices, impacting sellers who previously relied on such methods to reduce costs [15][17]. Conclusion The cross-border e-commerce industry is experiencing stable growth, with Amazon and Temu as key players. Tariff stability and strategic shifts in advertising and operational models are shaping the competitive landscape. The integration of AI technology and evolving logistics partnerships are also critical factors influencing future growth and efficiency in the sector.