SEMICON TAIWAN现场调研反馈

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the AI computing industry, highlighting the significant role of system vendors like NVIDIA and Google in shaping market trends, while TSMC and ASML are pivotal in providing technological platforms [1][2] - Silicon photonics technology emerged as a key topic, aimed at reducing energy consumption unrelated to computation, with large-scale commercialization expected by 2027 [1][2] Company Insights TSMC - TSMC is advancing steadily in its technology, with 2nm process expected to achieve mass production by 2025 and ongoing development of 3nm technology, enhancing its pricing power and customer profitability [1][3] - Under the Foundry 2.0 concept, TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is accelerating, with six operational factories and plans for four new ones, including expansions of CoWoS, SoIC, and CoPoS platforms [1][15] - TSMC's average selling price (ASP) has nearly doubled from $3,000 in 2019 to over $7,000 currently, driven by its technological advantages [13] - Future revenue growth for TSMC is heavily reliant on high-performance computing (HPC) clients, with a 70%-80% growth rate among these customers [16] - TSMC's capital expenditures have increased, with a peak in 2021 at 50% of revenue, but the pressure is expected to ease moving forward [21] Oracle - Oracle's capital expenditures have significantly increased, potentially linked to securing a large order from OpenAI, which could drive additional computing demand [3][19] - If Oracle executes on its projected orders, it could benefit not only itself but also related companies like SoftBank and Industrial Fulian [19] Industrial Fulian - Industrial Fulian is positioned to benefit from the AI-related capital expenditure cycle, particularly in its cloud service equipment segment, which is expected to see rapid growth in 2025 and 2026 [23][24] Market Dynamics - The energy consumption associated with AI development is rising sharply, with cabinet energy consumption projected to increase from 60 kW in 2022 to 120 kW in 2025, and potentially reaching 500 kW by 2027 [10] - New AI chip architectures are emerging, such as 3D stacking and RISC-V based designs, which could significantly impact the market landscape [11] Competitive Landscape - Google and NVIDIA have different approaches in the semiconductor solutions space, with Google utilizing over 9,000 TPUs, while NVIDIA focuses on GPUs [7] - TSMC and ASML are leading the global semiconductor technology landscape, with TSMC introducing GAA technology and ASML advancing EUV lithography [8] Investment Outlook - TSMC is expected to see annual profit growth of 25%-30% in the coming years, with an attractive valuation compared to its peers [4][22] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to continue evolving, with significant opportunities for companies like TSMC and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing supply chain [25]