铝行业：全球需求同比增长 3%，库存仍低但自 6 月起呈上升趋势-Aluminium Dashboard_ Global demand +3% YTD, inventory remains low but has trended higher since June

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - Industry: Aluminium and Alumina Producers - Global Demand: Increased by 3% year-to-date (YTD) through July, with China up by 4% and the Rest of the World (RoW) up by 2% [1][15] - Global Production: Softer growth at 1.5% globally, with China at +2% and RoW flat [1] - Global Inventories: Remain low at approximately 1,125kt, but have increased by about 300kt since late June, still below 2024 levels and near decade lows for this time of year [1] Key Insights - Alumina Prices: Decreased from approximately $380/t in late July to $337/t at spot, with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at 13%, below the average of 17% [1] - Aluminium Prices: Up by 5% YTD, with forward curves in slight contango [1] - Market Outlook: J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Research team anticipates a balanced market this year and a mild surplus next year [1] Investment Recommendations - Overweight Calls: - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - Rio Tinto Ltd.: - Market Cap: $108.3 billion - EV: $126.7 billion - Price Target: $123.0 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.7 [4] - Norsk Hydro: - Market Cap: $13.1 billion - EV: $15.2 billion - Price Target: $73.0 (11% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.1 [4] - Press Metal: - Market Cap: $10.9 billion - EV: $11.8 billion - Price Target: $5.9 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 16.3 [4] Consensus Estimates - Rio Tinto NPAT: - FY26: $9,661 million (1% below consensus) - FY27: $9,757 million (8% below consensus) [9] - Norsk Hydro NPAT: - FY26: $14,939 million (23% above consensus) - FY27: $11,972 million (15% below consensus) [9] Production and Demand Summary - China Aluminium Production: Expected to increase from 24.9 Mt in July 2024 to 25.4 Mt in July 2025 (2% increase) [15] - Global Aluminium Demand: Projected to rise from 41.4 Mt in July 2024 to 42.7 Mt in July 2025 (3% increase) [15] Additional Insights - Alumina Production in China: Expected to rise from 79.8 Mt in 2023 to 83.7 Mt in 2024 [17] - Global Production Trends: Year-to-date production shows a 2.6% increase globally, with specific regional variations [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard, highlighting the current state and outlook of the aluminium industry, along with specific investment recommendations and financial metrics for key companies.