G全球宏观策略 - _贸易战_是结束的开始，还是开始的结束-lobal Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas_ Trade War_ Beginning of the end, or end of the beginning_

V i e w p o i n t | 11 Sep 2025 22:50:58 ET │ 25 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Trade War: Beginning of the end, or end of the beginning? CITI'S TAKE The US effective tariff rate is running at only 9% vs theoretical announced rates closer to 18%, and US goods inflation is muted. Is the trade war over, or has it barely begun? Low realized tariff rates are likely due to a combination of two factors: 1) transshipments and 2) carveouts. If 1) is the main driver, this risks further targeted ...