TSMC(US:TSM)2025-09-22 01:00Summary of Key Points from Semicon Taiwan Conference Industry Overview - The report focuses on the semiconductor industry, particularly the developments observed during the Semicon Taiwan conference, highlighting the role of AI in driving demand and technology advancements [1][23]. Core Insights 1. AI Demand Visibility: - Strong visibility for AI demand is expected to persist into 2026, with TSMC maintaining its CoWoS capacity plan despite no recent revisions. The supply chain is increasingly confident about robust growth due to positive downstream updates [2][24]. 2. NAND Price Surge: - ADATA reported a sudden increase in NAND prices, anticipating a 5-10% price rise per quarter in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, driven by AI inference demand and hard drive shortages. However, a potential capex hike could lead to a price drop by mid-2026 [3][25]. 3. NVIDIA's HBM Requirements: - NVIDIA's increased requirements for HBM and cooling systems introduce uncertainties for suppliers. Micron may face challenges meeting these demands due to its inferior planar process, while Samsung and SK Hynix are better positioned to comply [4][27]. 4. Emerging Packaging Technologies: - TSMC is advancing its CoWoS technology and exploring new packaging methods like SoW, CoPoS, and CPO, which are expected to reach small R&D volumes by 2026. This includes localizing advanced packaging equipment and materials [5][35][46]. 5. Investment Implications: - Positive outlook for TSMC and memory suppliers, with specific ratings for companies like Chroma ATE, Unimicron Technology, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, and others, indicating a favorable investment environment [6][10][12][14][15]. Additional Important Insights - Supply Chain Dynamics: - The report highlights the importance of smaller companies in the semiconductor and AI supply chain, which play unique roles despite not being covered extensively [1][23]. - Market Trends: - The NAND market is experiencing a notable shortage, affecting both enterprise and consumer segments, with suppliers negotiating price increases of 10-30% [26]. - Technological Advancements: - The shift towards higher performance requirements in AI processors is pushing suppliers to innovate rapidly, with NVIDIA's Rubin CPX targeting cost-effective solutions for AI inference stages [28][29]. - Localization Strategy: - TSMC's strategy to localize its supply chain for advanced packaging is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and reduce dependency on global suppliers [46][51]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the Semicon Taiwan conference, emphasizing the semiconductor industry's trajectory influenced by AI and emerging technologies.