CCTC(SZ:300408)2025-09-22 01:00Summary of CCTC (300408 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - Company: CCTC (300408 CH) - Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - Market Cap: CNY 81,604 million (USD 11,454 million) [7][16] Key Insights MLCC Sector Dynamics - The MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitors) sector is entering a new upcycle, with prices for high-end MLCCs on the rise due to strong demand from AI servers and automotive sectors, while supply increases remain limited [3][12] - Unlike previous cycles focused on commodity MLCCs, this cycle emphasizes high-end products, benefiting leading Japanese and Korean manufacturers [3][12] - CCTC is expected to gain market share in the commodity MLCC segment due to: 1. Utilization rates at leading manufacturers exceeding 90%, shifting capacity to high-end applications, thus reducing commodity supply [3][12] 2. CCTC's expansion into high-capacity MLCC offerings, contributing over 50% of its MLCC sales in 1H25 [3][12] SOFC Product Demand - Demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) products is increasing, driven by data centers' need for clean energy [4][12] - CCTC's share price rose 31% over the past three months, outperforming the Wind passive components index [4][12] - Key customer Bloom Energy plans to double its fuel cell manufacturing capacity to 2GW by 2026, potentially generating RMB 1.4 billion in orders for CCTC's SOFC electrolyte [4][12] Financial Performance and Estimates - CCTC reported record-high quarterly revenue of RMB 2,316 million (up 24% year-on-year) and net profit of RMB 704 million (up 19% year-on-year) [27] - Revised 2025-26 net profit estimates down by 3% and up by 1%, respectively, reflecting lower MLCC revenue estimates offset by higher SOFC revenue [5][27] - Target price raised to RMB 54.00 from RMB 45.40, implying a 27% upside from the current share price [5][12] Financial Projections - Revenue Estimates: - 2025: RMB 9,258 million - 2026: RMB 11,184 million - 2027: RMB 13,975 million [13][27] - Net Profit Estimates: - 2025: RMB 2,780 million - 2026: RMB 3,469 million - 2027: RMB 4,312 million [13][27] Valuation Metrics - Expected net profit CAGR of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [5][12] - Average PEG multiple for the A-share passive component sector is 1.3x, leading to a target PE multiple of 32x [5][12] Risks and Considerations - Weaker-than-expected recovery in MLCC demand and price rebound [32] - Potential for lower market share gains in high-end MLCC if competitors reduce prices [32] - Risk of lower gross margins due to expansion of new capacities [32] Conclusion - CCTC is positioned to benefit from the evolving dynamics in the MLCC and SOFC markets, with a strong outlook for revenue growth and market share expansion. The revised target price reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on these trends while managing associated risks.