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全球存储行业:NAND 闪存上涨但能否持续?以及 DRAM 高带宽内存(HBM)为何可以?-Global Memory: NAND rallies but can't sustain? And why DRAM HBM can?
Micron TechnologyMicron Technology(US:MU)2025-09-22 02:01

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the memory industry, specifically NAND, DRAM, and HBM markets, with insights on major players including Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and KIOXIA [1][2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - NAND Market Dynamics: - Recent demand surge driven by AI inference and hard drive shortages has led to a price increase in NAND, with vendors raising prices by 10% to 30% [2][15]. - Despite the current price rally, there is a structural caution regarding the sustainability of this demand, as suppliers may eventually increase capacity, leading to potential price declines in late 2026 [3][29]. - KIOXIA's book value is expected to rise by 80% in the next 12 months, but the stock is rated Underperform due to structural concerns and a likely downturn in earnings by FY27 [4][12]. - HBM and DRAM Market Outlook: - The overall HBM market is projected to grow by 53% year-over-year in 2026, with Samsung positioned to exert pricing pressure on SK hynix [6][54]. - Micron faces challenges in meeting NVIDIA's higher speed requirements for HBM4, while Samsung's advanced technology may provide a competitive edge [5][52]. - The DRAM market is expected to remain robust, supported by a shortage of DDR4 and challenges in transitioning to DDR5 for some suppliers [54][67]. Investment Ratings and Price Targets - Samsung: Rated Outperform with a target price of KRW 95,000, reflecting a 21% upside potential [9][67]. - SK hynix: Rated Outperform with a target price of KRW 400,000, indicating a 13% upside [10][67]. - Micron: Rated Outperform with a target price of US$170, representing a 6% upside [11][67]. - KIOXIA: Rated Underperform with a target price of JPY 3,500, which is 23% below the current price [12][67]. Additional Important Insights - Capacity Expansion: Suppliers may delay capacity expansion in response to unexpected demand but are likely to add capacity in late 2025 or early 2026, which could lead to a decline in NAND prices [3][29]. - Geopolitical Factors: YMTC's expansion in NAND capacity may not significantly impact Western CSPs due to geopolitical considerations, but it could address consumer demand through Chinese OEMs [15][24]. - Market Sentiment: The consensus has not fully reflected the recent NAND price increases and remains overly bearish on HBM, suggesting potential upside for the rated companies [7][67]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the memory industry.