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中国材料行业_2025 年实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #141 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption
CitiCiti(US:C)2025-09-23 02:34

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (September 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of September 11-17, 2025 [1][4]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 852,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 32.0 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.9mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 927kt on September 18, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 5% decrease YoY [3]. - Social inventory was 780kt, up 3% WoW, while producers' inventory was 148kt, down 4% WoW [3]. - For aluminum ingots, inventory was 701kt, up 2% WoW and down 8% YoY; for aluminum billets, inventory was 226kt, down 1% WoW and up 5% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 873kt during the week, down 2% WoW but up 6% YoY [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 892kt, down 2% WoW, while for billets it was 342kt, down 1% WoW [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.9mnt, up 4.7% YoY, with ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.6% YoY, respectively [4]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, with the latest sector ranking being copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]. Additional Insights - The increase in total aluminum inventory during the week indicates a potential shift in demand dynamics, as inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024 but higher than in 2023 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-23 but lower than in 2024, suggesting fluctuating demand patterns [8]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing stable production levels with a cautious outlook on demand recovery. Inventory levels are being closely monitored, and apparent consumption trends indicate a mixed performance compared to previous years.