JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM)2025-09-23 02:34Summary of J.P. Morgan FX Technical Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the performance of major currency pairs including the US dollar (DXY Index), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD [2][3][7][20][25]. Key Points and Arguments US Dollar (DXY Index) - The DXY Index has rebounded from a key support level in the 96-handles, which includes a long-term trend line from 2011 to 2021 [2][4]. - The dollar is expected to consolidate in the coming weeks, with significant resistance near the 100 level [2][4]. - A break above the 98.099 50-day moving average could attract systematic trend-following buying interest [3][20]. EUR/USD - EUR/USD has rejected longer-term channel resistance for the second time in 2025, indicating a potential trend reversal if it breaks below the 1.1667-1.1743 support zone [7][8]. - Historical data shows that 63% of similar past signals since 1990 resulted in a lower EUR/USD price after eight weeks [11]. - The critical support zone for EUR/USD is identified at 1.1214-1.1391, which is expected to hold through the fourth quarter [7][8]. GBP/USD - GBP/USD has formed a potential double top at the 1.359-1.3669 resistance level, reinforcing a medium-term range outlook [16][17]. - A break below the 1.3331-1.3333 level could lead to a test of the 1.3119-1.3148 support zone, which includes the 200-day moving average [16][17]. USD/JPY - USD/JPY rebounded from key support at 144.97-146.84, maintaining a neutral bias within a multi-month trading range [20][21]. - Resistance levels are noted at 148.65 (200-day moving average) and 149.14 (early September high) [20][21]. - A breakdown below 145 could lead to a retest of critical support near 140 [20]. AUD/USD - AUD/USD has shown a bullish medium-term trend despite fading from the 0.6683-0.6722 Fibonacci retracement zone [25][26]. - Key support levels are identified at 0.6534-0.6569, with a significant medium-term support at 0.6396-0.6419 [25][26]. - The performance of industrial metals like LME copper and aluminum is highlighted as a potential influence on AUD/USD [25]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in understanding currency movements and potential trading strategies [3][20]. - The analysis includes historical performance data and technical indicators to support the outlook for each currency pair [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and technical analysis provided in the J.P. Morgan FX Technical Update, focusing on the current state and future outlook of major currency pairs in the foreign exchange market.