小商品城20250923

Summary of Conference Call for Xiaogoods City Company Overview - Xiaogoods City is experiencing significant performance release through expansion and diversified procurement methods, with a stock buyback totaling approximately 104 billion in 2025, while the current market capitalization is around 100 billion, indicating a safety cushion for investors [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The blockade of the China-Europe Railway has a limited impact on Xiaogoods City, as its core advantage lies in its established trade position and supporting measures, with the railway's volume being only about 1/10 of maritime transport [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a net profit exceeding 5.5 billion in 2026, with growth rates for 2025 and 2026 projected to remain above 30%, benefiting from new market catalysts and high growth in Yiwu's import and export activities [2][8]. - The average site selection fee has surpassed 100,000 per square meter, with an expected total cash flow of over 12 billion to be reflected in the financial statements, confirming the revenue from site selection fees in the second half of the year [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The recent acceleration of Yiwu's export growth to over 20% since May indicates a strong fundamental performance, despite the stock price retreating below 100 billion due to short-term factors, presenting an investment opportunity [2][8]. - The international situation, including the blockade at the Belarus border, is seen as beneficial for Xiaogoods City, as it operates as a platform with multiple shipping and payment verification methods, with European trade accounting for less than 10% of its business [3][9][10]. Additional Important Points - The stablecoin sector's recent pullback does not directly affect Xiaogoods City, as it is not categorized as a brokerage firm, and the company continues to make steady progress in market recruitment across various sectors [2][7]. - The company's valuation is attractive, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 times for 2025 and 16-17 times for 2026, indicating a favorable investment position [3][10].