Nvidia(US:NVDA)2025-09-25 05:58Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - DDR5 Spot Price Increase: The spot price for 16Gb DDR5 increased by 10% this week, reaching a new high of nearly US$7, compared to a low of US$4 in 2023-2024. The price for legacy DDR4 8Gb also rose by 6% [1][10][12]. - Gradual Price Recovery: Year-to-date, DDR5 prices have shown a gradual recovery, with only 1-2% week-over-week increases prior to this week [1]. - Catalysts for Price Increase: The sudden price increase is attributed to: 1. Stronger demand due to increased memory content and replacement cycles for old PCs and servers. 2. Capacity shifts from DDR5 to HBM4 and other memory types. 3. Inventory restocking by OEMs ahead of a projected supply shortage in Q4 [1]. - Annual Contracts: Some OEMs and memory module manufacturers are looking to secure annual contracts for DDR5 at higher prices, a shift from the conventional quarterly contracts due to concerns over long-term supply shortages [1]. Memory Technology Developments - NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL 144 CPX: This new GPU is expected to utilize three types of memory, totaling approximately 100TB, which is 2.5 times larger than the current Blackwell Ultra NVL 72. The memory types include HBM4, GDDR7, and SOCAMM [2]. - SOCAMM vs HBM: SOCAMM offers lower bandwidth compared to HBM4, suggesting a limited price premium compared to LPDDR5 but is cheaper than GDDR7 [2]. Samsung's HBM3e Qualification - Samsung's HBM3e: Reports indicate that Samsung's 12-hi HBM3e has passed NVIDIA's quality testing, aligning with management expectations. However, a large order is not anticipated soon due to Hynix's strong market position [3]. China's Semiconductor Industry - Positive Data: China's semiconductor equipment imports rose by 12% year-over-year in August, exceeding market expectations. This increase is partly due to Korean chipmakers' investments in fab upgrades ahead of US restrictions [4]. - Huawei's GPU Line-Up: Huawei announced new GPU line-ups, including the Ascend 950 for 2026, which still rely on legacy HBM2-equivalent memory rather than advanced HBM4+ [4]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - DRAM Price Trends: The current spot prices for various DRAM types are as follows: - 16Gb DDR5: US$6.8 (up 10% WoW, 39% YoY) - 16Gb DDR4: US$10.2 (up 6% WoW, 168% YoY) - 8Gb DDR4: US$6.1 (up 6% WoW, 211% YoY) [7][10]. - Contract Price Trends: DDR4 prices have seen a significant increase, with a crossover occurring in Q2 2025 where DDR4 prices surpassed DDR5 prices [27][29]. Conclusion - The memory industry is experiencing a significant price rally, particularly in DDR5 and DDR4 segments, driven by demand and supply dynamics. The developments in memory technology, particularly from major players like NVIDIA and Samsung, indicate a competitive landscape with potential for further price adjustments and contract negotiations in the near future.