美国经济：政府停摆风险进一步上升-US Economics_ The Daily Update – Shutdown risk rises further

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the potential government shutdown in the United States, which is expected to occur on October 1 if a last-minute deal is not reached between Democratic and Republican leaders [6][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - Government Shutdown Implications: A typical shutdown would furlough approximately 800,000 government workers, which is about 0.5% of total non-farm payrolls. However, the current administration may use this shutdown to accelerate layoffs of employees not aligned with its priorities, potentially increasing economic drag [8]. - Political Stalemate: Both parties are entrenched in their positions. Democrats demand an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Republicans have proposed a continuing resolution (CR) to extend funding until November 21, which requires Democratic support to advance in the Senate [6][7]. - Market Reactions: The immediate market impact of a shutdown would likely include delays in key economic data releases, such as the September jobs report [9]. Economic Data and Forecasts - Existing Home Sales: Expected to remain low at 3.96 million, reflecting a slight decline from previous levels [11]. - Durable Goods Orders: Anticipated to increase by 1.9% month-over-month, while core durable goods orders are expected to see a modest increase of 0.1% [16]. - Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims are projected to remain stable at 231,000, with continuing claims expected to rise to 1,945,000 [16]. - Trade Balance: The advance goods trade balance is expected to tighten modestly to -$101.0 billion from -$96.0 billion [16]. Additional Important Information - Economic Indicators: The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0, while the Services PMI decreased to 53.9, indicating a softening in business activity but still within expansion territory [18]. - Consumer Spending: Personal spending is expected to increase by 0.6% month-over-month in nominal terms, with real personal spending projected to rise by 0.4% [16]. - Inflation Metrics: The core PCE price index is expected to show a 0.2% month-over-month increase, reflecting a softer inflation outlook compared to the core CPI [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and potential impacts of the government shutdown.