台积电 - 2027 年增长因人工智能重拾升势，获多年上行空间；维持 “买入” 评级（于 CL 平台）；目标价新台币 1,600 元

Summary of TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - Ticker: 2330.TW - Market Cap: NT$33.7 trillion / $1.1 trillion - Enterprise Value: NT$32.0 trillion / $1.0 trillion - 12-Month Price Target: NT$1,600 (up from NT$1,370) [40][41] Key Industry Insights - AI Demand: AI is expected to be a significant growth driver for TSMC, with Nvidia projecting the AI infrastructure market to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, implying a 42.3% CAGR from $600 billion in 2025 [2][23]. - Revenue Growth: TSMC's total revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of at least 17.2% from 2026 to 2030, even with muted non-AI growth [2][24]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - Earnings Revisions: TSMC's earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised by 2-9%, reflecting higher N2 capacity and favorable foreign exchange rates [1][36]. - Revenue Projections: - 2025E: NT$3,695.5 billion - 2026E: NT$4,307.5 billion - 2027E: NT$5,187.1 billion [4][16]. - Gross Margin: Expected to improve to 58.5% in 2025, 58.2% in 2026, and remain at 58.2% in 2027 [22][36]. Capacity and Demand Insights - N2 Capacity: Revised up to 1,230k wafers in 2027, driven by demand from AI and HPC customers [1][20]. - Capex: Increased to $44 billion for 2026, reflecting higher N2 capacity [21][36]. Valuation Metrics - P/E Ratio: Projected to be 19.6 in 2025, decreasing to 15.3 by 2027 [10]. - EPS Growth: Expected to grow from NT$45.25 in 2024 to NT$84.84 in 2027 [4][16]. - Dividend Yield: Projected to increase from 1.9% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2027 [4]. Strategic Outlook - Long-term Growth: TSMC is positioned to capture long-term structural growth opportunities in sectors such as 5G, AI, HPC, and EV [41]. - Market Position: TSMC's technology leadership and execution capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive position against peers [41]. Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: The company maintains a Buy rating with a target price of NT$1,600, reflecting a 22.6% upside potential [40][41].