Micron Technology(US:MU)2025-10-09 02:00Summary of Global Memory Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the memory market, specifically DRAM and NAND sectors, highlighting trends in spot and contract prices for September 2025 [2][17]. Key Points on DRAM Market - Spot Prices: - Spot prices for PC DDR4 chips surged by 31% MoM, while DDR5 increased by 28% MoM, driven by fears of a broad DRAM shortage [19]. - Server DDR4 spot prices rose by 19% MoM, with DDR5 increasing by 17% MoM due to strong demand forecasts from CSP customers [19]. - Contract Prices: - September contract prices for conventional DRAM were stable MoM, but a 24% QoQ increase is expected in 3QCY25, with specific increases of ~20% for PC, 9% for Server, 27% for Mobile, and ~90% for Consumer [4][25]. - The demand forecast from CSPs indicates a potential supply shortage, prompting vendors to seek higher prices [4][7]. - TrendForce anticipates a 5-10% QoQ increase in DRAM contract prices for 4QCY25, stronger than previous expectations [4][7]. - Market Sentiment: - The market is shifting in favor of suppliers, with OEMs and module houses increasing inventory in anticipation of shortages [7][20]. - Despite a stable demand outlook for some applications, OEMs are reconsidering their purchasing strategies due to expected shortages [20]. Key Points on NAND Market - Spot Prices: - NAND wafer spot prices increased by 9-11% MoM, driven by a surge in eSSD demand due to hard drive shortages [5][24]. - Contract Prices: - NAND wafer contract prices rose mildly by 2-3% MoM in September, with a 4-14% increase compared to 2QCY25 [6][24]. - The demand for eSSD is expected to lead to a more significant increase in contract prices in 4QCY25 [6][24]. - Market Dynamics: - The NAND market is experiencing a favorable pricing environment, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this demand, particularly as it is largely driven by HDD shortages [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the NAND market is cautious, with expectations of price increases but skepticism about long-term strength due to competition and weak growth in non-enterprise segments [22][24]. Investment Implications - Company Ratings: - Samsung Electronics is rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 95,000 [11]. - SK hynix is rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 400,000 [12]. - Micron is rated Outperform with a price target of US$170.00 [13]. - KIOXIA is rated Underperform with a price target of JPY3,500.00 [14]. Additional Insights - The anticipated increase in DRAM prices is expected to be supported by the growth in HBM shipments and a favorable pricing outlook for conventional DRAM [22]. - The overall market dynamics suggest a potential upside to conventional DRAM pricing assumptions for the upcoming year [22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the memory market's current state and future expectations.